US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Miss Fuels Equity Rally
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | +2.91% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,740.19 | +3.43% |
| Dow Jones | 46,341.51 | +2.49% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,496.37 | +3.41% |
| USD/JPY | 159.78 | +0.18% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.41% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32 | +0.44% |
| Gold | 4,680.10 | +0.50% |
| WTI Crude | 114.31 | +1.69% |
| Bitcoin | 68,240.24 | -0.90% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.84% | +1.32% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.35% | +0.93% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 56.10 | 55 | 54 |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 4.35 (2026-04-03) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.64,2.93,4.69,4.58,4.33,4.35 | 2Y Yield (%): 3.84 (2026-04-03) | Range: 0.13–5.19 | Trend(6pt): 0.14,2.97,5.12,4.25,3.81,3.84
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 10,000 | - | 04:15 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 0 | -0.50 | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | 08:35 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 10.3m | - | 12:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Jefferson | - | - | 13:50 |
- Services PMI undershot forecasts at 54.0, signaling slower expansion and boosting Fed cut bets.
- US equities surged over 2%, led by tech amid AI optimism and soft data.
- Treasury yields rose modestly, reflecting inflation concerns despite global risks.
Yesterday's Recap
US Services Sector PMI printed at 54.0, missing consensus of 55 and down from previous 56.1, indicating ongoing expansion but at a moderated pace that strengthened Federal Reserve easing expectations. Equity markets rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 up 2.91% to 6,528.52, Nasdaq 100 up 3.43% to 23,740.19, and Dow Jones up 2.49% to 46,341.51, driven by tech gains and rate-cut optimism. The Russell 2000 rose 3.41% to 2,496.37, showing widespread buying.
Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year at 3.84% (up 1.32%) and 10-year at 4.35% (up 0.93%), as markets balanced persistent inflation against slowdown signals. Currencies saw mild gains against the USD, with USD/JPY up 0.18% to 159.78, EUR/USD up 0.41% to 1.16, and GBP/USD up 0.44% to 1.32. Commodities were mixed: Gold gained 0.50% to 4,680.10 and WTI Crude rose 1.69% to 114.31 amid Middle East tensions, while Bitcoin fell 0.90% to 68,240.24.
The Day Ahead
Today's US releases include ADP Employment Change Weekly at 4:15 ET for early labor insights after recent softening. Durable Goods Orders MoM at 4:30 ET, with consensus -0.5% after flat prior, and ex-transport at 0.5% expected. Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 8:35 ET and Jefferson at 13:50 ET, possibly signaling rate views with Fed Funds at 3.64%.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET will assess inventories, affecting oil amid supply issues. Volatility expected if data surprises, influencing yields and stocks.
Other Economic Notes
US economy shows resilience with unemployment at 4.30% and March job gains of 178,000 exceeding expectations, yet CPI YoY at 2.31% pressures spending. Labor strength supports growth but challenges Fed balancing. Corporate news includes VR Resources' $500,000 placement and Flagship Communities' Q1 call, highlighting investment activity.
Broader themes note fiscal warnings from S&P on state spending, potentially impacting credit ratings amid cost-of-living relief demands.
