US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Stocks Rally, Oil Plunges on Cease-Fire
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | +2.91% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,740.19 | +3.43% |
| Dow Jones | 46,341.51 | +2.49% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,496.37 | +3.41% |
| USD/JPY | 158.44 | -0.78% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | +1.33% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +1.57% |
| Gold | 4,821.30 | +3.53% |
| WTI Crude | 94.68 | -16.18% |
| Bitcoin | 71,511.81 | -0.60% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.84% | +0.00% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.34% | -0.23% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 56.10 | 55 | 54 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15,250 | - | 26,000 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -0.50 | -0.50 | -1.40 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 10.3m | - | 3.7m |
| Speech by Fed's Jefferson | - | - | - |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.57 | - | - |
US WTI Crude Oil Price | Type: macro_line | WTI $/bbl: 104.7 (2026-03-30) | Range: 55.44–123.6 | Trend(6pt): 59.29,101.5,93.67,70.38,101.3,104.7
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 5.5m | - | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -585,000 | - | 06:30 |
| Fed Daly Speech | - | - | 09:05 |
| FOMC Meeting Minutes | - | - | 10:00 |
| Thursday (2026-04-09) | |||
| Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Final Estimate | 4.40 | 0.70 | 04:30 |
| Personal Income Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Personal Spending Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Corporate Profits Quarter-over-Quarter | 4.70 | - | 04:30 |
- US equities surged on US-Iran cease-fire deal, with S&P 500 up 2.91% and Nasdaq 100 gaining 3.43%.
- Services PMI slipped to 54.0, below consensus, while durable goods orders disappointed at -1.4% MoM.
- Oil prices tumbled 16.18% on reduced Middle East tensions, boosting risk assets.
Yesterday's Recap
US markets reacted positively to a surprise US-Iran cease-fire agreement, driving broad equity gains as geopolitical risks eased. The S&P 500 climbed 2.91% to 6,528.52, led by tech and small-caps, with the Nasdaq 100 up 3.43% to 23,740.19 and Russell 2000 advancing 3.41% to 2,496.37. Treasury yields mixed slightly, with the 10-year dipping 0.23% to 4.34%, reflecting safe-haven unwind, while the 2-year held steady at 3.84%.
Currency moves favored a weaker dollar, as EUR/USD rose 1.33% to 1.17 and GBP/USD gained 1.57% to 1.34, but USD/JPY fell 0.78% to 158.44. On data, Services Sector PMI came in softer at 54.0 versus 55 consensus, signaling moderating expansion, while ADP Employment Change jumped to 26,000 from 15,250 prior, indicating labor market resilience. Durable Goods Orders fell sharply by 1.4% MoM against -0.5% expected, though ex-transportation beat at 0.8% versus 0.5% consensus.
Commodities diverged, with WTI Crude plunging 16.18% to 94.68 amid cease-fire relief, gold rallying 3.53% to 4,821.30 as a hedge, and Bitcoin dipping 0.60% to 71,511.81.
The Day Ahead
Today's focus centers on EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory at 6:30 ET, expected to show inventory changes following API's 3.719 million barrel build, potentially influencing energy prices post-cease-fire. EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory releases simultaneously, providing insights into demand amid fluctuating oil dynamics. Fed's Daly speaks at 9:05 ET, offering clues on policy amid recent data softness.
FOMC Meeting Minutes drop at 10:00 ET, detailing discussions on rates and inflation, which could sway market expectations. Looking to Thursday, Core PCE Price Index MoM is eyed at 4:30 ET with 0.4% consensus, alongside GDP Growth QoQ final estimate at 0.7% expected versus 4.4% prior, and Personal Income MoM at 0.3% consensus versus 0.4% prior.
Other Economic Notes
Broader US economic themes highlight a potential replay of 2000s dynamics rather than 1970s stagflation, with robust job additions like the recent 178,000 not alarming some Fed officials even if growth slows. Inflation pressures from Middle East conflicts have pushed rates higher in affected regions, underscoring energy's role in cost-of-living risks. (cont...)
