US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Ceasefire Lifts Stocks, Oil Falls
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,616.85 | +0.08% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,202.37 | +0.04% |
| Dow Jones | 46,584.46 | -0.18% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,544.95 | +0.17% |
| USD/JPY | 159.08 | +0.23% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.11% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.04% |
| Gold | 4,769.90 | +0.43% |
| WTI Crude | 99.20 | +5.07% |
| Bitcoin | 71,292.98 | +0.24% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.81% | -0.78% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.33% | -0.23% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services Sector PMI | 56.10 | 55 | 54 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15,250 | - | 26,000 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -0.50 | -0.50 | -1.40 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 10.3m | - | 3.7m |
| Speech by Fed's Jefferson | - | - | - |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.57 | - | 6.51 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 5.5m | 700,000 | 3.1m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -586,000 | -1.4m | -1.6m |
US CPI Year-over-Year | Type: macro_line | CPI Index: 2.665 (2026-02-01) | Range: 2.325–8.979 | Trend(5pt): 4.918,8.463,3.687,2.719,2.665
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Final Estimate | 4.40 | 0.70 | 04:30 |
| Personal Income Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Personal Spending Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Corporate Profits Quarter-over-Quarter | 4.70 | - | 04:30 |
| GDP Price Index Quarter-over-Quarter Final | 3.70 | - | 04:30 |
| PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| PCE Price Index Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 2.80 | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 202,000 | 210,000 | 04:30 |
- US-Iran ceasefire spurred equity gains and oil price drops, easing geopolitical tensions.
- Services PMI and durable goods data signaled softening US economic momentum.
- Fed minutes revealed concerns over Iran conflict impacting rate path.
Yesterday's Recap
US economic data released yesterday showed mixed signals, with Services Sector PMI dropping to 54.0, below the consensus of 55 and prior 56.1, indicating a slowdown in service activity. Durable Goods Orders fell sharply by -1.4% MoM, missing the expected -0.5% and prior -0.5%, while ex-transport orders rose to 0.8% against consensus 0.5%. ADP Employment Change came in at 26,000, higher than the previous 15,250, suggesting some labor market resilience.
Oil inventories data pressured prices, with EIA Crude Oil Inventory at 3,081,000 versus consensus 700,000, and Gasoline Inventory at -1,589,000 near expectations. Market reactions included modest equity moves: S&P 500 up 0.08% to 6,616.85, Nasdaq 100 up 0.04% to 24,202.37, while Dow Jones dipped 0.18% to 46,584.46. Treasury yields eased slightly, with US 10Y at 4.33% down 0.23%, amid Fed speeches and FOMC minutes release.
Overall, the ceasefire announcement dominated sentiment, boosting risk assets like gold to 4,769.90 up 0.43%, while WTI Crude plunged on de-escalation news and inventory builds, closing down -5.07% to 99.20.
The Day Ahead
Today's key releases include the Core PCE Price Index MoM at 04:30 ET, with consensus at 0.4% following prior 0.4%, serving as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. GDP Growth QoQ Final Estimate is expected at 0.7% versus previous 4.4%, potentially confirming a sharp slowdown in economic expansion. Personal Income MoM arrives at the same time, forecasted at 0.3% after 0.4%, offering insights into consumer spending power.
Personal Spending MoM is also due, expected at 0.3% following prior 0.4%. No major Fed speeches are scheduled, but markets will digest yesterday's FOMC minutes for further guidance. Volatility may persist if data surprises, influencing Treasury yields and equity futures.
Traders eye these prints for clues on the Fed's rate trajectory amid ongoing geopolitical easing.
Other Economic Notes
Broader US themes highlight uneven growth, with recent unemployment at 4.30% as of March signaling labor market stability but potential vulnerabilities from global tensions. CPI YoY stands at 2.31% as of 2025-04-01, underscoring cooling inflation yet persistent pressures in services. (cont...)
