US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Sales Beat, Stocks Dip
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,108.40 | -0.41% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 26,782.63 | -0.57% |
| Dow Jones | 49,310.32 | -0.36% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,775.10 | -0.37% |
| USD/JPY | 159.49 | +0.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | +0.08% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.05% |
| Gold | 4,750.00 | +0.95% |
| WTI Crude | 94.94 | -0.95% |
| Bitcoin | 77,759.94 | -0.65% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.79% | +0.26% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.30% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 40,250 | - | 54,750 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 1.40 | 1.90 |
| Business Inventories Month-over-Month | 0 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Confirmation Hearing | - | - | - |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | 2.50 | 0.10 | 1.50 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | -0.80 | - | -1.10 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 6.1m | -1m | -4.4m |
US Retail Sales MoM Growth | Type: macro_line | Retail Sales: 3.969 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.02984–26.51 | Trend(6pt): 26.51,9.593,4.162,3.87,3.268,3.969
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- US retail sales surged 1.7% MoM, beating expectations and signaling strong consumer spending.
- Equity markets edged lower, with S&P 500 down 0.41% amid mixed data and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Oil inventories built unexpectedly, pressuring crude prices, while gold rose on safe-haven demand.
Yesterday's Recap
US retail sales climbed 1.7% month-over-month, surpassing consensus of 1.4% and prior 0.7%, fueled by resilient consumer demand. Excluding autos, sales rose 1.9% versus 1.4% expected, and control group advanced 0.7% against 0.2% forecast. ADP weekly employment change jumped to 54,750 from 40,250, reflecting labor strength.
Pending home sales increased 1.5% MoM, beating 0.1% consensus, though YoY dipped to -1.1% from -0.8%. Business inventories grew 0.4% MoM, edging above 0.3% expected. Chicago Fed national activity index dropped to -0.20 from 0.03, and weekly jobless claims rose to 214,000, slightly above 212,000 consensus and prior 208,000, hinting at mild softening.
Equity indices softened, with S&P 500 at 7,108.40 (-0.41%), Nasdaq 100 at 26,782.63 (-0.57%), Dow Jones at 49,310.32 (-0.36%), and Russell 2000 at 2,775.10 (-0.37%). Treasury yields were mixed, with 2Y at 3.79% (+0.26%) and 10Y steady at 4.30%. Gold advanced 0.95% to 4,750.00, while WTI crude fell 0.95% to 94.94 after EIA reported a 1.925 million barrel inventory build versus -1.2 million expected draw.
MBA 30-year mortgage rate eased to 6.35% from 6.42%.
The Day Ahead
No major US economic data releases are scheduled today. Markets may focus on global developments, including US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty and international economic news. Fed speakers could provide insights on policy, potentially influencing Treasury yields and equity sentiment.
Volatility might arise from ongoing tariff discussions and commodity trends, with attention on currency pairs like USD/JPY at 159.49 (+0.07%).
Other Economic Notes
The US economy shows resilience with CPI YoY at 2.31% indicating easing inflation, supporting potential Fed moves. Unemployment at 4.30% reflects labor stability, though global tariffs pose risks to small businesses and growth. Housing remains mixed, with pending sales up but high mortgage rates constraining affordability amid tight inventories.
