US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UAE Exits OPEC, Oil Surges
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,138.80 | -0.49% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 27,029.01 | -1.01% |
| Dow Jones | 49,141.93 | -0.05% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,756.05 | -1.15% |
| USD/JPY | 159.75 | +0.25% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.11% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.20% |
| Gold | 4,580.90 | -0.23% |
| WTI Crude | 103.26 | +3.33% |
| Bitcoin | 77,612.09 | +1.65% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.78% | +0.00% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.35% | +0.93% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.20 | - | -2.30 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 40,250 | - | 39,250 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.20 | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 92.20 | - | 92.80 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -4.4m | 300,000 | -1.8m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.35 | - | - |
WTI Crude Oil Prices | Type: macro_line | WTI Price ($/barrel): 91.06 (2026-04-20) | Range: 55.44–123.6 | Trend(5pt): 63.5,97.74,89.35,76.79,91.06
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Prel | 1.4m | - | 04:30 |
| Building Permits Prel | - | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -1.40 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.5m | - | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | - | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -4.70 | - | 04:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | - | - | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83,500m | -87,000m | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | - | - | 04:30 |
- US data showed softening manufacturing and housing, with mixed employment and confidence signals.
- Markets dipped modestly amid tech weakness; oil jumped on UAE's OPEC exit announcement.
- Fed funds rate steady at 3.64%, with focus on upcoming indicators for policy cues.
Yesterday's Recap
On April 28, US releases highlighted economic softening. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -2.3 from -0.2, signaling regional contraction. ADP Employment Change Weekly dipped to 39,250 from 40,250, indicating slight job growth moderation.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year eased to 0.9%, missing the 1.1% consensus and prior 1.2%, underscoring housing slowdown. CB Consumer Confidence rose marginally to 92.8 from 92.2, providing minor uplift. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks drew down by -1.79 million barrels, against a 0.3 million build consensus and prior -4.4 million draw, supporting oil gains.
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate data was unavailable, following 6.35% previously. Equities ended lower: S&P 500 at 7,138.80 (-0.49%), Nasdaq 100 at 27,029.01 (-1.01%), Dow Jones at 49,141.93 (-0.05%), Russell 2000 at 2,756.05 (-1.15%). FX saw USD/JPY at 159.75 (+0.25%), EUR/USD at 1.17 (-0.11%), GBP/USD at 1.35 (-0.20%).
Commodities: Gold at 4,580.90 (-0.23%), WTI Crude at 103.26 (+3.33%), Bitcoin at 77,612.09 (+1.65%). Treasuries: 2Y at 3.78% (flat), 10Y at 4.35% (+0.93%).
The Day Ahead
April 29 brings key US data at 4:30 ET. Preliminary Building Permits are eyed at 1.39 million (prior 1.386 million), with month-over-month change from -4.7%. Housing Starts anticipated at 1.4 million (prior 1.487 million), gauging construction amid high rates.
Durable Goods Orders forecast +0.5% month-over-month (prior -1.4%), ex-transport +0.4% (prior 0.8%), reflecting investment trends. Advance Goods Trade Balance expected at -$87 billion (prior -$83.5 billion). Weaker figures could heighten Fed cut expectations, impacting yields and stocks.
No Fed speakers planned, but markets monitor for updates.
Other Economic Notes
US economy faces headwinds with CPI year-over-year at 2.31% as of April 2025, straining households despite unemployment at 4.30% through March 2026. High mortgage rates, last at 6.35%, curb housing affordability and starts. Equity markets show elevated valuations amid uneven earnings, while labor strength offsets manufacturing weakness.
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