US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Equities Rally as Oil Tumbles
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,259.22 | +0.81% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,015.06 | +1.31% |
| Dow Jones | 49,298.25 | +0.73% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,845.00 | +1.75% |
| USD/JPY | 155.75 | -0.92% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | +0.86% |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | +0.79% |
| Gold | 4,725.70 | +3.73% |
| WTI Crude | 90.97 | -11.05% |
| Bitcoin | 82,285.00 | +1.68% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.95% | +1.80% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.45% | +1.37% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| Exports Level | 314,700m | - | 320,900m |
| Imports Level | 372,400m | - | 381,200m |
| Trade Balance | -57,800m | -60,900m | -60,300m |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 6.9m | 6.8m | 6.9m |
| Services Sector PMI | 54 | 53.70 | 53.60 |
| New Home Sales | 583,000 | - | 635,000 |
| New Home Sales | 635,000 | 650,000 | 682,000 |
| New Home Sales Month-over-Month | 8.90 | - | 7.40 |
US CPI All Items | Type: macro_line | Index 1982-1984=100: 3.32 (2026-03-01) | Range: 2.325–8.979 | Trend(5pt): 5.296,8.223,3.251,2.871,3.32 | Percent: 3.64 (2026-04-01) | Range: 0.08–5.33 | Trend(5pt): 0.08,2.33,5.33,4.48,3.64
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.8m | -2.8m | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-05-06) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.37 | - | 03:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | 62,000 | 99,000 | 04:15 |
| Speech by Fed's Musalem | - | - | 05:30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -6.2m | -2.8m | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -6.1m | -1.7m | 06:30 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | 09:00 |
| Fed Hammack Speech | - | - | 09:30 |
| Thursday (2026-05-07) | |||
- US equities advanced on resilient data, with S&P 500 up 0.81% and Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.31%.
- Factory orders surged 1.5% MoM, beating consensus, while services PMI edged to 53.6.
- Oil prices fell 11.05% on inventories, contrasting gold's 3.73% rise.
Yesterday's Recap
US factory orders jumped 1.5% month-over-month, far exceeding the 0.5% consensus and prior 0.3%, signaling robust manufacturing demand. The trade balance widened slightly to -60.3 billion, better than the -60.9 billion expected but worse than the prior -57.8 billion, with exports rising to 320.9 billion and imports to 381.2 billion. JOLTs job openings held at 6.866 million, slightly above the 6.84 million forecast but below the prior 6.922 million, indicating a cooling yet resilient labor market.
Services PMI dipped to 53.6, missing the 53.7 consensus from 54.0 prior, though still in expansion. New home sales climbed to 682,000 annualized, with 7.4% MoM growth beating the 650,000 consensus level, underscoring housing strength. Equity markets responded positively, with Dow Jones up 0.73% to 49,298.25 and Russell 2000 surging 1.75% to 2,845.00, while Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year at 4.45% (+1.37%).
Currency moves included USD/JPY down 0.92% to 155.75, amid risk-on sentiment despite oil's decline.
The Day Ahead
Focus shifts to ADP employment change at 4:15 ET tomorrow, with prior at 62,000, providing early labor insights ahead of payrolls. The MBA 30-year mortgage rate releases at 3:00 ET, following the previous 6.37%, gauging housing costs. No major Fed speeches today, but markets eye any updates after recent remarks.
API crude oil stocks reported late yesterday, with consensus for a 2.8 million barrel draw after the prior 1.79 million decline, potentially stabilizing energy prices. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a risk for commodities and inflation.
Other Economic Notes
The US economy displays resilience with manufacturing and housing beating expectations, offset by slight services softening, suggesting a soft landing amid cooling inflation. Verified indicators include CPI YoY at 2.31% as of April 2025 and unemployment at 4.30% as of March 2026, bolstering controlled growth without recession. AI-driven business investment now leads GDP growth over consumer spending, per analyses, potentially sustaining expansion despite debt worries.
State fiscal models, like Indiana's AAA rating, offer lessons for national debt management.
