US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Inflation Beats, Oil Surges
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,412.84 | +0.19% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,320.66 | +0.29% |
| Dow Jones | 49,704.47 | +0.19% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,870.64 | +0.33% |
| USD/JPY | 157.67 | +0.28% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.35% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.51% |
| Gold | 4,724.50 | +0.12% |
| WTI Crude | 102.09 | +4.10% |
| Bitcoin | 80,513.89 | -1.49% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 3.95% | +1.28% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.42% | +0.91% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Home Sales | 4.0m | 4.0m | 4.0m |
| Existing Home Sales Month-over-Month | -2.90 | - | 0.20 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 30,250 | - | 33,000 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Consumer Price Index | 330.21 | - | 333.02 |
| Consumer Price Index SA | 330.29 | - | 332.41 |
WTI Crude Oil Prices | Type: macro_line | WTI Price ($/bbl): 109.8 (2026-05-04) | Range: 55.44–123.6 | Trend(5pt): 65.32,93.18,83.04,73.04,109.8
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -8.1m | -1.6m | 16:30 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -8.1m | -1.6m | 16:34 |
| Wednesday (2026-05-13) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.45 | - | 07:00 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.50 | 08:30 |
| Core Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -2.3m | -1.6m | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -2.5m | -2.5m | 10:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Collins | - | - | 11:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Kashkari | - | - | 13:15 |
- US inflation data exceeded expectations, with YoY rate at 3.8% versus 3.7% consensus, pressuring rate cut bets.
- Equity markets edged higher, led by Nasdaq's 0.29% gain, amid mixed economic signals.
- Oil prices jumped 4.10% to $102.09, boosting energy sectors while Treasury yields rose.
Yesterday's Recap
US existing home sales for April came in at 4.02 million units, slightly below the 4.05 million consensus but up 0.2% month-over-month from a prior -2.9% drop. Inflation figures showed headline YoY at 3.8% against 3.7% expected, with core YoY at 2.8% versus 2.7% forecast, signaling persistent price pressures. Monthly headline inflation met the 0.6% consensus, while core rose 0.4% against 0.3% anticipated.
ADP weekly employment change rose to 33,000 from 30,250 prior, indicating steady labor gains. The monthly budget statement printed a $215 billion surplus, short of the $220 billion consensus but improved from the prior -$164 billion deficit. Equity indices closed modestly higher, with S&P 500 up 0.19% to 7,412.84 and Dow Jones up 0.19% to 49,704.47, supported by tech gains despite inflation worries.
Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year at 4.42% and 2-year at 3.95%, as oil surged 4.10% amid global tensions.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the API weekly crude oil stocks report at 16:30 ET, with consensus expecting a -1.65 million barrel drawdown following last week's -8.1 million decline. Tomorrow brings the MBA 30-year mortgage rate at 07:00 ET, which could influence housing market sentiment after recent sales data. Key releases on Wednesday include producer price index data, a high-impact indicator that may shape inflation outlooks.
Fed speakers are absent today, leaving markets to digest Goolsbee and Williams remarks. Expect volatility in energy markets given oil's recent surge to $102.09. Broader events include potential updates on fiscal policy amid the budget surplus report.
Other Economic Notes
Broader US economic themes highlight resilient labor markets, with unemployment at 4.30% and ADP showing gains, yet inflation's uptick to 3.8% YoY raises concerns over wage-price spirals. Housing remains subdued, as existing sales edged up only 0.2% MoM, pressured by elevated mortgage rates and inventory constraints. Fiscal dynamics improve with a $215 billion budget surplus, potentially easing deficit worries but underscoring needs for infrastructure spending.
