US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PPI Surges, Yields Climb
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,444.25 | +0.58% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,366.94 | +1.04% |
| Dow Jones | 49,693.20 | -0.14% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,843.93 | +0.04% |
| USD/JPY | 157.93 | +0.17% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.29% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.21% |
| Gold | 4,707.90 | +0.22% |
| WTI Crude | 100.65 | -0.37% |
| Bitcoin | 79,749.26 | +0.60% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.00% | +1.27% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.46% | +0.90% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.45 | - | 6.46 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| Core Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 1 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -2.3m | -2.1m | -4.3m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -2.5m | -2.9m | -4.1m |
| Speech by Fed's Collins | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Kashkari | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | - |
US Crude Oil Prices | Type: macro_line | WTI $/bbl: 101.6 (2026-05-11) | Range: 55.44–123.6 | Trend(5pt): 66.24,97.02,77.96,72.73,101.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.60 | 0.50 | 08:30 |
| Export Prices Month-over-Month | 1.50 | 1.10 | 08:30 |
| Import Prices Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 1 | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 199,000 | 205,000 | 08:30 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 0.40 | 08:30 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 1.90 | 0.60 | 08:30 |
| Business Inventories Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.80 | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Schmid | - | - | 10:15 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 13:00 |
| Fed Hammack Speech | - | - | 13:00 |
- US PPI MoM spiked to 1.4%, beating consensus 0.5%, highlighting ongoing inflation risks.
- Equities mixed: Nasdaq +1.04% on tech gains, Dow -0.14%; Treasuries sold off with 10Y yield +0.90%.
- Fed speeches from Collins, Kashkari, Logan likely addressed hot data, reinforcing caution.
Yesterday's Recap
On May 13, US producer prices rose sharply, with headline PPI MoM at 1.4% versus consensus 0.5% and prior 0.7%, while core PPI MoM reached 1.0% against expected 0.3% and previous 0.2%. The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate increased slightly to 6.46% from 6.45%. Energy inventories declined more than forecast: EIA crude oil stocks dropped 4.306 million barrels compared to consensus -2.1 million and prior -2.313 million, with gasoline inventories falling 4.084 million versus expected -2.85 million and previous -2.504 million.
Fed officials Collins, Kashkari, and Logan gave speeches, expected to emphasize inflation vigilance amid the data. Markets responded variably: S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,444.25, Nasdaq 100 gained 1.04% to 29,366.94, Dow Jones fell 0.14% to 49,693.20, and Russell 2000 added 0.04% to 2,843.93. Treasury yields rose, with the 2Y at 4.00% (+1.27%) and 10Y at 4.46% (+0.90%).
The dollar firmed modestly, USD/JPY up 0.17% to 157.93, EUR/USD down 0.29% to 1.17, and GBP/USD off 0.21% to 1.35. Gold climbed 0.22% to 4,707.90, Bitcoin rose 0.60% to 79,749.26, but WTI crude dipped 0.37% to 100.65 despite inventory draws.
The Day Ahead
May 14 features key US releases starting at 08:30 ET with Retail Sales MoM, expected at 0.5% after prior 1.6%, and Retail Sales Excluding Autos at 0.6% versus previous 1.9%. Weekly Jobless Claims are projected at 205,000 following 199,000, offering labor market clues amid April's 4.30% unemployment. Import Prices MoM consensus is 1.0% (prior 0.9%), Export Prices MoM at 1.1% (prior 1.5%), and Retail Sales Control Group at 0.4% versus 0.8% prior, all at 08:30.
Business Inventories MoM at 10:00 ET is forecast at 0.8% after 0.4%, shedding light on inventory trends and GDP implications. These data points will be scrutinized for consumer strength and inflation signals post yesterday's strong PPI.
Other Economic Notes
US economy shows robust growth with inflation challenges, as CPI YoY stood at 2.31% as of April 2025, indicating easing but lingering pressures. April unemployment at 4.30% points to labor stability, bolstering spending despite mortgage rates near 6.46%. Energy markets face supply tightness from larger-than-expected inventory reductions, which may drive price swings and feed into broader inflation.
