US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Data Beats, Equities Rally on Oil Draw
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,432.97 | +1.08% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,297.70 | +1.66% |
| Dow Jones | 50,009.35 | +1.31% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,817.37 | +2.56% |
| USD/JPY | 159.16 | +0.08% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.05% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.19% |
| Gold | 4,514.70 | -0.37% |
| WTI Crude | 100.50 | +2.28% |
| Bitcoin | 77,129.43 | -0.42% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.13% | +1.47% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.67% | +1.30% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Venable Speech | - | - | - |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 35 | 37 |
| Net Long-term TIC Flows | 57,000m | - | 81,300m |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 33,000 | - | 42,250 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | 1.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | -1.10 | - | 3.20 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.2m | -3.4m | -9.1m |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.2m | -3.4m | -9.1m |
| Speech by Fed's Paulson | - | - | - |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield (%): 4.67 (2026-05-19) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.61,2.98,4.45,4.55,4.59,4.67
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Prel | 1.4m | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.5m | 1.4m | 04:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -11.40 | - | 04:30 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | 10.80 | - | 04:30 |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 26.70 | 18 | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 211,000 | 210,000 | 04:30 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 51.70 | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 54.50 | 53.80 | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 51 | 51.10 | 05:45 |
- NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 37, topping consensus of 35
- S&P 500 climbed 1.08% while Russell 2000 surged 2.56%
- WTI crude advanced 2.28% after larger-than-expected inventory draw
Yesterday's Recap
US housing data surprised to the upside on May 20. The NAHB index reached 37 versus 35 expected, while pending home sales rose 1.4% month-over-month against a 1% consensus. API and EIA crude inventories posted sharp draws of 9.1 million and 7.86 million barrels, respectively, lifting energy prices.
Fed speakers including Waller, Paulson, Barr and Venable addressed audiences without shifting policy signals. Equity markets responded positively, with the Dow Jones rising 1.31% and Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.66%. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 2-year reaching 4.13% and the 10-year at 4.67%.
The dollar held steady against major crosses amid the risk-on tone.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to housing indicators on May 21. Building permits preliminary data are due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
FOMC minutes from the April 28-29 meeting will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and are expected to reinforce the current gradual easing path. No high-impact Fed speeches are scheduled.
Markets will parse the minutes for any updates on balance-sheet reduction and the timing of future rate adjustments.
Other Economic Notes
CPI remains contained at 2.31% year-over-year, supporting the Federal Reserve’s measured approach. The unemployment rate stands at 4.30%, indicating a still-resilient labor market without overheating. The Fed funds rate at 3.62% provides room for policy flexibility if growth moderates.
Housing metrics continue to show gradual improvement, though mortgage rates near 6.56% remain a headwind for affordability.
Global Macro News
The UK secured a £3.7 billion annual trade deal with Gulf Cooperation Council states, removing tariffs on British exports and marking the first such agreement by a G7 nation. UK inflation printed lower than expected at 2.8% year-over-year, easing pressure on the Bank of England. China’s April industrial production exceeded forecasts, supporting commodity demand.
The EU moved to implement its trade pact with the United States following earlier tariff threats. <i>↓ p.2</i>
