US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Data Beats as Stocks Rise, Yields Fall
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,445.72 | +0.17% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,357.27 | +0.20% |
| Dow Jones | 50,285.66 | +0.55% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,843.45 | +0.93% |
| USD/JPY | 159.06 | +0.11% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.16% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.00% |
| Gold | 4,519.80 | -0.44% |
| WTI Crude | 96.54 | +0.20% |
| Bitcoin | 77,447.04 | -0.12% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.04% | -2.18% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.57% | -2.14% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Venable Speech | - | - | - |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 35 | 37 |
| Net Long-term TIC Flows | 57,000m | - | 81,300m |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 33,000 | - | 42,250 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | - |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | 1.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
| Pending Home Sales Year-over-Year | -1.10 | - | 3.20 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.2m | -3.4m | -9.1m |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.2m | -3.4m | -9.1m |
| Speech by Fed's Paulson | - | - | - |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.57 (2026-05-20) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(5pt): 1.61,3.03,4.42,4.42,4.57
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final | 49.80 | 48.20 | 06:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 07:00 |
- NAHB Housing Index rose to 37 versus 35 expected, while pending home sales increased 1.4% month-over-month.
- Equities advanced with the Dow Jones gaining 0.55% and Russell 2000 rising 0.93% as tech and small-caps led.
- Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year at 4.04% and 10-year at 4.57%, reflecting lower rate-hike odds.
Yesterday's Recap
US data showed resilience in housing. The NAHB index climbed to 37, beating consensus, while pending home sales rose 1.4% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. API and EIA crude inventories posted larger-than-expected draws of 9.1 million and 7.9 million barrels.
Multiple Fed speakers including Venable, Waller, Paulson and Barr addressed audiences without shifting policy signals. Equity markets closed higher, led by the Dow Jones at 50,285.66 and Russell 2000 at 2,843.45. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 2.18% to 4.04% while the dollar held steady against major crosses.
Gold slipped 0.44% to $4,519.80 as risk appetite improved.
The Day Ahead
Markets await further housing and labor updates today. Initial jobless claims and existing-home sales figures will test whether the cooling trend in employment persists. FOMC minutes from the May meeting could clarify the committee’s view on inflation at 2.31% and unemployment at 4.30%.
Fed speakers remain active, with any comments on the transition to new leadership likely to move front-end yields. Oil markets will monitor inventory trends after yesterday’s sharp draws.
Other Economic Notes
Broader data continue to show a labor market that is cooling gradually rather than collapsing. CPI at 2.31% year-over-year keeps the Fed on a data-dependent path with the policy rate at 3.62%. Mortgage rates rose to 6.56%, pressuring affordability despite stronger pending sales.
Treasury TIC flows printed a robust $81.3 billion net long-term inflow, supporting demand for US assets.
Global Macro News
Iran-related supply concerns lifted WTI crude to $96.54. The UK secured a £3.7 billion trade deal with Gulf states that could indirectly ease energy price pressures on the US. Turkish political developments and Canadian pension returns of 7.8% highlight divergent global risk sentiment.
European and Asian equities followed US gains on AI enthusiasm. Brent prices near $105 added to imported inflation concerns for the Fed. <i>↓ p.2</i>
