US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PCE, GDP Data to Shape Fed Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,520.36 | +0.02% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,973.57 | -0.09% |
| Dow Jones | 50,644.28 | +0.36% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,919.94 | -0.02% |
| USD/JPY | 159.44 | +0.13% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | -0.25% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.47% |
| Gold | 4,411.00 | -0.82% |
| WTI Crude | 90.96 | +2.57% |
| Bitcoin | 73,261.01 | -1.46% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.01% | -2.91% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.50% | -1.32% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | - | 0.14 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 0.90 | 1 | 0.80 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 93.80 | - | 93.10 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -2.30 | - | 0.40 |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | - |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.56 | - | 6.65 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 40,750 | - | 35,750 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -9.1m | - | -2.8m |
| Speech by Fed's Jefferson | - | - | - |
10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | %: 4.5 (2026-05-26) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.62,3.04,4.47,4.3,4.56,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 0.80 | 3.50 | 04:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Second Estimate | 0.50 | 2 | 04:30 |
| Personal Income Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.40 | 04:30 |
| Personal Spending Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| Corporate Profits Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | 5.70 | - | 04:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.90 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| GDP Price Index Quarter-over-Quarter 2nd Est | 3.70 | - | 04:30 |
| PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.50 | 04:30 |
| PCE Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 3.80 | 04:30 |
- Mixed US data showed housing softening and consumer confidence easing while manufacturing edged higher.
- Equities closed near flat with S&P 500 at 7,520.36 as Treasury yields declined on lower rate-hike odds.
- Markets await today's Core PCE and GDP revisions that will shape expectations for the 3.62% Fed funds rate.
Yesterday's Recap
US data releases delivered a mixed picture. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.14 from -0.15. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices grew 0.8% year-over-year, below the 1.0% consensus.
Consumer confidence slipped to 93.1 while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index turned positive at 0.4. The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.65%. ADP employment change printed 35,750.
API crude stocks fell 2.8 million barrels. Equities finished mixed with the Dow Jones rising 0.36% to 50,644.28 and the S&P 500 adding 0.02%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.32% to 4.50% as USD/JPY rose 0.13% to 159.44.
The Day Ahead
Investors focus on the 8:30 ET releases of Core PCE, second-quarter GDP estimate, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending. Core PCE is expected at 0.3% month-over-month while GDP is forecast at 2.0% annualized. Durable goods orders are projected to jump 3.5%.
These prints will update inflation and growth trajectories ahead of the next FOMC meeting. No major Fed speakers are scheduled. Oil and Treasury markets will react to any surprises in the inflation components.
Other Economic Notes
Housing data continue to signal cooling demand with prices and sales both missing expectations. The unemployment rate stands at 4.30% and CPI at 2.31% year-over-year, keeping the policy rate at 3.62%. Broader activity measures such as the Chicago Fed index point to modest expansion.
Markets price limited near-term tightening given the incoming inflation and growth figures.
Global Macro News
The United States plans to retain tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports while pursuing bilateral USMCA revisions, sidelining Canada. EUR/USD fell 0.25% to 1.16 amid Fed hawkishness and geopolitical tensions. Gold declined 0.82% to 4,411 as the dollar firmed.
WTI crude rose 2.57% to 90.96 on supply concerns. <i>↓ p.2</i>
