US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Core PCE Cools as GDP Growth Misses Estimates
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,563.63 | +0.58% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,223.89 | +0.84% |
| Dow Jones | 50,668.97 | +0.05% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,936.57 | +0.57% |
| USD/JPY | 159.27 | -0.18% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.26% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.11% |
| Gold | 4,544.80 | +1.01% |
| WTI Crude | 87.94 | -1.08% |
| Bitcoin | 73,237.89 | -0.41% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.00% | -0.25% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.48% | -0.44% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | - | 0.14 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 0.90 | 1 | 0.80 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 93.80 | - | 93.10 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -2.30 | - | 0.40 |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | - |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.56 | - | 6.65 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 40,750 | - | 35,750 |
| Fed Cook Speech | - | - | - |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -9.1m | - | -2.8m |
| Speech by Fed's Jefferson | - | - | - |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.48 (2026-05-27) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.62,3.04,4.47,4.3,4.56,4.48
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -87,450m | -86,500m | 04:30 |
| Retail Inventories Ex Autos Month-over-Month Adv | 0.40 | - | 04:30 |
| Wholesale Inventories Month-over-Month Adv | 1.30 | 0.60 | 04:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 05:10 |
| Speech by Fed's Paulson | - | - | 05:15 |
| Chicago PMI | 49.20 | 50.50 | 05:45 |
- Core PCE rose 0.2% m/m, below the 0.3% consensus, easing price pressures.
- Q1 GDP second estimate came in at 1.6% QoQ, missing the 2.0% forecast.
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted gains amid lower Treasury yields.
Yesterday's Recap
US data showed mixed signals with inflation cooling and growth softening. Core PCE Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month against a 0.3% consensus and prior 0.3%. GDP growth revised to 1.6% annualized in the second estimate, missing the 2.0% forecast.
Personal income was flat while spending rose 0.5% as expected. Durable goods orders surged 7.9% versus 3.5% anticipated. Equities rallied with the S&P 500 at 7,563.63 (+0.58%) and Nasdaq 100 at 30,223.89 (+0.84%).
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.48% as markets priced reduced rate-hike odds. The 2-year yield ended at 4.00%.
The Day Ahead
No high-impact US releases are scheduled for May 29. Markets will monitor follow-up commentary from Fed speakers Cook and Jefferson. Oil prices may remain volatile amid ongoing Middle East developments.
Treasury auctions and any updates on geopolitical tensions could influence flows. Equity sentiment hinges on whether de-escalation sustains risk appetite. The Beige Book release later in the week will provide regional color ahead of the June FOMC.
Other Economic Notes
Softer core PCE and sub-consensus GDP reinforce a gradual cooling in the US expansion. Labor market data remain stable with unemployment at 4.3%. Treasury curves flattened modestly as front-end yields held near 4.00% on the 2-year.
Consumer confidence slipped to 93.1 while home-price growth slowed to 0.8% year-over-year. These prints keep the policy path data-dependent without signaling abrupt weakness. US CPI YoY stands at 2.31%.
Global Macro News
US-Iran tensions weighed on sentiment while ceasefire extension talks lifted equities and capped oil gains. WTI crude settled at 87.94 after a 1.08% decline on reduced supply-risk premium. EUR/USD rose to 1.16 while USD/JPY eased to 159.27 on shifting rate differentials.
ECB’s Lagarde stressed central-bank independence amid global shifts. Bank of Canada highlighted household debt and geopolitical instability as downside risks. Gold advanced to 4,544.80 on safe-haven demand.
European and Asian bourses reacted positively to the de-escalation signals.
