US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
ISM Beats, JOLTs Surge; Equities Slide
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,553.68 | -0.74% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,571.24 | -0.29% |
| Dow Jones | 50,687.07 | -1.21% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,893.51 | -1.31% |
| USD/JPY | 159.85 | -0.08% |
| EUR/USD | 1.16 | +0.19% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.03% |
| Gold | 4,526.70 | +2.03% |
| WTI Crude | 92.80 | -3.35% |
| Bitcoin | 63,606.92 | -0.64% |
| US 2Y Treasury | - | - |
| US 10Y Treasury | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.70 | 53 | 54 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 46.40 | - | 48.60 |
| Speech by Fed's Kashkari | - | - | - |
| Fed Hammack Speech | - | - | - |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 6.9m | 6.9m | 7.6m |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.8m | -3.6m | -6.8m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.65 | - | 6.57 |
| ADP Employment Change | 105,000 | 117,000 | 122,000 |
| Speech by Fed's Barr | - | - | - |
| Services Sector PMI | 53.60 | 53.80 | 54.50 |
US Nonfarm Payrolls | Type: macro_line | Thousands of Persons: 1.587e+05 (2026-04-01) | Range: 1.468e+05–1.587e+05 | Trend(6pt): 1.468e+05,1.536e+05,1.567e+05,1.583e+05,1.586e+05,1.587e+05
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 215,000 | 213,000 | 04:30 |
| Fed Daly Speech | - | - | 09:10 |
| Friday (2026-06-05) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.30 | 4.30 | 04:30 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 115,000 | 85,000 | 04:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.60 | 3.40 | 04:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | 61.80 | - | 04:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.20 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Saturday (2026-06-06) | |||
- US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 and services PMI to 54.5, both exceeding forecasts and signaling expansion.
- JOLTs job openings jumped to 7.618 million while ADP employment added 122,000 positions.
- S&P 500 fell 0.74 percent and gold climbed 2.03 percent amid Middle East tensions and tariff announcements.
Yesterday's Recap
US data releases showed manufacturing strength as ISM PMI reached 54.0 against a 53.0 consensus and employment sub-index improved to 48.6. Services PMI printed 54.5 versus 53.8 expected, while factory orders rose 4.8 percent month-over-month. JOLTs job openings climbed to 7.618 million, well above the 6.88 million consensus, and ADP private payrolls increased 122,000.
The 30-year mortgage rate eased to 6.57 percent. Equity markets closed lower with the S&P 500 at 7,553.68, down 0.74 percent, the Dow Jones off 1.21 percent, and the Russell 2000 down 1.31 percent. Gold advanced to 4,526.70, up 2.03 percent, while WTI crude fell 3.35 percent to 92.80.
Fed speakers including Goolsbee, Barr, and Logan addressed regional conditions and policy outlook.
The Day Ahead
Markets will monitor follow-through from yesterday’s strong labor and PMI prints into today’s session. Oil inventory draws and any additional Fed commentary could influence rate expectations. Treasury yields remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines and tariff developments.
Equity volatility may stay elevated given single-stock dispersion and Middle East uncertainty. Participants will assess whether resilient domestic data offsets external risks to growth.
Other Economic Notes
The Beige Book highlighted stagflation risks from ongoing conflicts, with supply disruptions pressuring prices. Gold’s rise above US Treasuries as a reserve asset reflects shifting central-bank preferences. Broader tariff proposals on 60 countries add to import-cost pressures that could sustain core inflation near 2.31 percent.
Unemployment holding at 4.30 percent continues to support a gradual policy path at the current 3.62 percent fed funds rate.
Global Macro News
Iran’s strikes on Gulf facilities and US responses have lifted safe-haven demand while disrupting oil flows through Hormuz. GCC states condemned the attacks and Gulf exporters are advancing pipeline projects to bypass the strait. <i>↓ p.2</i>
