US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Equities Slip on Hawkish Fed Outlook
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,457.69 | -1.01% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,592.66 | -1.49% |
| Dow Jones | 52,146.42 | -0.77% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,962.22 | -0.42% |
| USD/JPY | 162.66 | +0.09% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.03% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.21% |
| Gold | 4,067.80 | +1.43% |
| WTI Crude | 83.36 | +0.16% |
| Bitcoin | 66,138.63 | +1.39% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.18% | +0.48% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.55% | -0.44% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
10Y Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | %: 4.55 (2026-07-17) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.27,4.14,4.14,4.29,4.57,4.55
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-07-21) | |||
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 19,750 | - | 04:15 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -56,000 | - | 12:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-07-22) | |||
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.65 | - | 03:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.7m | - | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.5m | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-23) | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.10 | - | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 208,000 | 212,000 | 04:30 |
- S&P 500 fell 1.01% to 7,457.69 as 10-year yields held at 4.55%.
- Gold rose 1.43% to $4,067.80 on oil-driven inflation concerns.
- USD/JPY stayed above 162 amid expectations of tighter policy.
Yesterday's Recap
US equity indices closed lower with the S&P 500 declining 1.01% to 7,457.69, Nasdaq 100 dropping 1.49% to 28,592.66, and Dow Jones falling 0.77% to 52,146.42. The Russell 2000 eased 0.42% to 2,962.22. Treasury yields showed mixed moves as the 2-year rose to 4.18% while the 10-year settled at 4.55%.
Gold advanced 1.43% to $4,067.80 and WTI crude gained 0.16% to $83.36 amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. EUR/USD edged down 0.03% to 1.14 and GBP/USD fell 0.21% to 1.34. Bitcoin rose 1.39% to 66,138.63.
No major US data releases occurred on July 19. The moves aligned with news flow highlighting potential further policy tightening and supply risks in energy markets that could sustain price pressures near the 3.50% CPI level recorded at end-June.
The Day Ahead
ADP Employment Change Weekly is scheduled for 04:15 ET on July 21 followed by API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 12:30 ET. On July 22, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate and EIA inventory reports will be released. July 23 brings the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Weekly Jobless Claims.
July 24 features S&P Global flash PMI prints for manufacturing and services plus New Home Sales. Markets will monitor housing and labor indicators for signs of cooling consistent with the 4.20% unemployment rate. No FOMC speakers are listed.
These releases will provide incremental evidence on whether activity remains aligned with the 2.10% GDP growth pace observed in the latest reading while inflation stays at 3.50% YoY.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded 2.10% QoQ SAAR in the latest reading. CPI stood at 3.50% YoY at end-June while the Fed funds rate held at 3.63%. These figures point to moderate growth alongside still-elevated inflation that keeps policy restrictive.
Broader activity data will be watched for consistency with the current 4.20% unemployment level. The combination suggests the economy continues to expand at a measured pace without rapid disinflation, supporting the observed yield levels of 4.18% on the 2-year and 4.55% on the 10-year.
