US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Stocks Climb as Oil Surges on Supply Risks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,509.20 | +0.89% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,155.18 | +1.93% |
| Dow Jones | 52,224.64 | +0.74% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,987.40 | +1.53% |
| USD/JPY | 163.01 | +0.32% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.09% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.45% |
| Gold | 4,124.30 | +1.31% |
| WTI Crude | 87.16 | +2.65% |
| Bitcoin | 66,001.91 | -0.76% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.21% | +0.72% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.60% | +1.10% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 19,250 | - | 16,500 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -564,000 | -1.5m | 2.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.65 | - | - |
US Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) | Type: macro_line | Thousands: 1.59e+05 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.473e+05–1.59e+05 | Trend(6pt): 1.473e+05,1.539e+05,1.569e+05,1.583e+05,1.588e+05,1.59e+05
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.7m | -1.5m | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.5m | - | 06:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-23) | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.10 | - | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 208,000 | 212,000 | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | - | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | - | 54.50 | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | - | 51.50 | 05:45 |
| New Home Sales | 580,000 | 610,000 | 06:00 |
- Equities gained with S&P 500 up 0.89% to 7,509.20 while WTI crude climbed 2.65% to 87.16 on Middle East tensions.
- US 2-year yield held at 4.21% and 10-year at 4.60% as markets priced steady policy amid 3.50% CPI.
- ADP jobs print softened to 16,500 while upcoming claims and PMI data will test labor and growth signals.
Yesterday's Recap
ADP Employment Change fell to 16,500 from 19,250 prior, pointing to slower private payroll growth. API crude stocks surprised with a 2.603 million barrel build against a 1.5 million draw consensus, easing immediate supply tightness. Equity indices advanced across the board, led by Nasdaq 100 gains of 1.93% to 29,155.18 on tech strength.
WTI crude rose sharply to 87.16, up 2.65%, reflecting geopolitical supply concerns. Treasury yields climbed with the 2-year at 4.21% and 10-year reaching 4.60%. USD/JPY edged higher to 163.01 while EUR/USD eased to 1.14.
Gold advanced 1.31% to 4,124.30 as a hedge against oil-driven inflation risks. Russell 2000 rose 1.53% to 2,987.40, showing broad participation.
The Day Ahead
EIA weekly crude and gasoline inventory data at 6:30 ET will update supply balances after yesterday’s API surprise. Thursday brings initial jobless claims with consensus at 212,000 and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Friday features S&P Global flash PMI prints for manufacturing and services plus new home sales expected at 610,000.
These releases will inform views on labor cooling and housing resilience ahead of next week’s policy decision. Markets will watch for deviations that could shift 2-year yield pricing around the 4.21% level. GDP growth figures of 2.10% QoQ SAAR and 2.68% YoY provide the backdrop for assessing whether activity remains consistent with the 6.72% retail sales pace.
Other Economic Notes
US CPI at 3.50% year-over-year anchors expectations for steady policy. Elevated oil prices near 87.16 risk feeding into core inflation readings later this year. Treasury yields have risen across the curve, with the 10-year at 4.60%, reflecting reduced odds of near-term easing.
Equity breadth remains positive as Russell 2000 gains 1.53%, signaling risk appetite despite higher energy costs. Retail sales growth of 6.72% YoY continues to support consumer-driven expansion even as oil volatility increases.
