US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Oil Spikes, Yields Climb as Fed Pause Lingers
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,498.96 | -0.14% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,998.10 | -0.54% |
| Dow Jones | 52,218.58 | -0.01% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,959.94 | -0.92% |
| USD/JPY | 163.37 | +0.11% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.02% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.08% |
| Gold | 4,096.10 | -1.23% |
| WTI Crude | 90.35 | +4.05% |
| Bitcoin | 65,704.41 | -0.60% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.26% | +1.19% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.63% | +0.65% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 19,250 | - | 16,500 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -564,000 | -1.5m | 2.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.65 | - | 6.69 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.7m | -1.2m | 2.0m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.5m | -1.5m | 765,000 |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.63 (2026-07-21) | Range: 1.19–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.29,4.21,4.11,4.42,4.6,4.63
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.10 | - | 04:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 208,000 | 212,000 | 04:30 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | - | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | - | 54.30 | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | - | 51.50 | 05:45 |
| New Home Sales | 580,000 | 610,000 | 06:00 |
| New Home Sales Month-over-Month | -7.30 | - | 06:00 |
- Equities slip as oil surges 4% on geopolitical tensions
- ADP jobs miss, crude inventories build sharply
- 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.63%
Yesterday's Recap
US data showed softening labor demand with ADP Employment Change at 16,500 versus 19,250 prior. API crude stocks rose 2.603 million barrels against an expected draw, while EIA reported a 2.011 million barrel build in crude and a 765,000 barrel gasoline inventory increase. The MBA 30-year mortgage rate edged higher to 6.69%.
Equity markets closed mixed to lower, with the S&P 500 falling 0.14% to 7,498.96 and the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.54%. Treasury yields advanced, lifting the 2-year to 4.26% and the 10-year to 4.63%. Oil prices jumped 4.05% to $90.35 amid renewed US-Iran tensions.
The dollar firmed modestly against the yen.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to weekly jobless claims, expected at 212,000, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Friday brings S&P Global flash PMIs, with manufacturing consensus at 54.3 and services at 51.5. New home sales are forecast to rise to 610,000 from 580,000 prior.
Markets will parse any revisions to the prior month’s data for signs of consumer resilience. Oil price volatility will remain a key variable for inflation expectations. Treasury moves may intensify ahead of the weekend.
Other Economic Notes
Consumer sentiment has improved beyond earlier estimates, supporting retail sales growth of 6.72% year-over-year. Investment in artificial intelligence continues to underpin equity valuations and broader spending. Housing inflation remains a persistent pressure point despite elevated mortgage rates.
GDP expanded 2.10% annualized in the first quarter, with year-over-year growth at 2.68%. These trends suggest underlying momentum even as labor market indicators soften gradually.
Global Macro News
Escalating US-Iran hostilities drove oil prices sharply higher, complicating the inflation outlook for the Federal Reserve. Saudi Arabia is projected to post the strongest Gulf growth at 2.6% in 2026, aided by tourism inflows. Trump administration trade negotiators reaffirmed tariff plans ahead of expiring duties, raising risks for global supply chains.
Nigeria and Germany agreed to expand trade ties, while Citi engaged Vietnam on economic cooperation. <i>↓ p.2</i>
