US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Claims Drop, Oil Stocks Build
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,408.30 | -1.21% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,454.81 | -1.87% |
| Dow Jones | 51,711.65 | -0.97% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,940.16 | -0.67% |
| USD/JPY | 163.79 | +0.44% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.23% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.40% |
| Gold | 4,061.40 | +0.37% |
| WTI Crude | 89.92 | -2.46% |
| Bitcoin | 64,881.73 | -0.25% |
| US 2Y Treasury | - | - |
| US 10Y Treasury | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 19,250 | - | 16,500 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -564,000 | -1.5m | 2.6m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.65 | - | 6.69 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.7m | -1.2m | 2.0m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | -1.5m | -1.5m | 765,000 |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.19 | - | -0.02 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 209,000 | 212,000 | 187,000 |
Initial Jobless Claims Trend | Type: macro_line | Claims (000s): 1.87e+05 (2026-07-18) | Range: 1.87e+05–3.79e+05 | Trend(5pt): 3.79e+05,2.02e+05,2.26e+05,2.39e+05,1.87e+05
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | - | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | - | 54.30 | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | - | 51.50 | 05:45 |
| New Home Sales | 580,000 | 610,000 | 06:00 |
| New Home Sales Month-over-Month | -7.30 | - | 06:00 |
- Weekly jobless claims fell to 187k, beating expectations and signaling labor resilience.
- EIA crude inventories rose 2.011 million barrels, reversing consensus draws and pressuring WTI lower.
- Equities declined with S&P 500 down 1.21% and Nasdaq 100 off 1.87% amid mixed data.
Yesterday's Recap
US data releases showed mixed labor and energy signals. ADP employment change printed 16,500 while initial claims dropped to 187,000 against a 212,000 consensus. Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to -0.02 from -0.19.
EIA weekly crude inventories surged 2.011 million barrels versus an expected 1.25 million draw, and gasoline stocks rose 765,000. Mortgage rates edged up to 6.69%. Markets reacted with S&P 500 falling 1.21% to 7,408.30, Nasdaq 100 declining 1.87%, and WTI crude dropping 2.46% to 89.92.
USD/JPY rose 0.44% to 163.79 while gold gained 0.37% to 4,061.40. The data reinforced views of a cooling yet resilient economy without triggering sharp rate repricing. US CPI YoY stands at 3.46% while retail sales YoY reached 6.72%, pointing to persistent consumer strength amid moderating price pressures.
The Day Ahead
Flash PMI prints from S&P Global will set the tone for services and manufacturing momentum. Consensus calls for manufacturing at 54.3 and services at 51.5. New home sales are expected to rise to 610,000 from 580,000, with month-over-month data also due.
Stronger housing figures could support rate-sensitive sectors while softer PMI readings may reinforce easing expectations. No major Fed speakers are scheduled. Traders will watch oil inventory trends and equity futures for clues on risk appetite ahead of the weekend.
Equity breadth narrowed as large-cap tech lagged broader indices. Treasury market liquidity remains adequate with limited moves in the front end despite the data flow.
Other Economic Notes
Broader sentiment reflects caution over energy price volatility feeding into headline inflation without derailing the soft-landing narrative. US 2Y Treasury Yield stands at 4.31% and US 10Y Treasury Yield at 4.67%. Fed Funds Rate is 3.63% with US Unemployment at 4.20%.
US GDP Growth QoQ SAAR is 2.10% and YoY is 2.68%. These levels underscore steady but moderating expansion as inventory builds add downside pressure to energy prices.
