US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Durable Goods Miss, Fed Hold Expected
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,413.18 | +0.02% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 28,039.21 | -0.32% |
| Dow Jones | 52,210.08 | +0.51% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,948.04 | +0.62% |
| USD/JPY | 163.61 | -0.13% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.26% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.52% |
| Gold | 4,023.50 | -1.25% |
| WTI Crude | 80.96 | -2.00% |
| Bitcoin | 63,417.17 | -0.48% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.33% | -0.92% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.69% | -0.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -4 | 2.50 | 0.30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 1.80 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 0 | - | 1.30 |
Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.2 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.4–5.1 | Trend(6pt): 5.1,3.6,3.8,4.2,4.3,4.2
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16,500 | - | 04:15 |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -105,900m | -101,300m | 04:30 |
| Retail Inventories Ex Autos Month-over-Month Adv | 0.30 | - | 04:30 |
| Wholesale Inventories Month-over-Month Adv | 0.10 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.10 | 1.30 | 05:00 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 91.20 | - | 06:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 2.6m | -1.5m | 12:30 |
- Durable goods orders rose just 0.3% MoM, well below 2.5% consensus
- Equities mixed as Dow gained 0.51% while Nasdaq 100 fell 0.32%
- Markets price Fed hold at 3.63% with focus on tomorrow’s decision
Yesterday's Recap
US durable goods orders increased 0.3% month-over-month in June, missing the 2.5% consensus and following a -4% prior reading. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.6% versus an 0.8% expectation. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index edged up to 1.3 from a flat prior level.
Equity markets finished mixed, with the Dow Jones advancing 0.51% to 52,210.08 while the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.32% to 28,039.21. The S&P 500 posted a negligible 0.02% gain to 7,413.18. Treasury yields eased, with the 2-year note at 4.33% and the 10-year at 4.69%.
WTI crude fell 2.00% to 80.96 amid reduced Middle East supply concerns. Gold slipped 1.25% to 4,023.50 while the dollar held steady, with EUR/USD at 1.14 and USD/JPY at 163.61.
The Day Ahead
Today’s releases include ADP employment change, the advance goods trade balance, retail and wholesale inventories, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices, and Conference Board consumer confidence. Markets will also monitor API crude oil inventory data. Tomorrow brings the FOMC interest rate decision, widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.63%.
The July 29 announcement will include updated economic projections and Chair commentary on the inflation path. Traders will scrutinize any shifts in forward guidance given June CPI at 3.46% year-over-year and unemployment at 4.20%. No other high-impact US data are scheduled for the remainder of the week.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded 2.10% quarter-over-quarter annualized in the first quarter, with the year-over-year rate at 2.68%. Retail sales rose 6.72% year-over-year through June, supporting views of resilient consumer spending. Housing data due today will test whether price growth remains contained near the 1.1% prior pace.
Inventory figures will help clarify whether businesses are rebuilding stocks ahead of potential tariff effects. Broader readings continue to show moderate growth without clear signs of overheating or sharp slowdown. The softer durable goods print adds to evidence that manufacturing momentum has cooled from earlier in the year.
