US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Fed Holds Rates as Data Signals Resilience
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,448.03 | +0.47% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 27,899.60 | -0.50% |
| Dow Jones | 52,853.06 | +1.23% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,950.16 | +0.07% |
| USD/JPY | 163.65 | -0.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | +0.18% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | +0.01% |
| Gold | 4,087.20 | +1.26% |
| WTI Crude | 83.11 | +4.86% |
| Bitcoin | 64,421.99 | +0.86% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.31% | -0.46% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.65% | -0.85% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | -4 | 2.50 | 0.30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 1.80 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 0 | - | 1.30 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16,250 | - | 15,000 |
| Goods Trade Balance Adv | -105,890m | -100,000m | -101,500m |
| Retail Inventories Ex Autos Month-over-Month Adv | 0.20 | - | -0.20 |
| Wholesale Inventories Month-over-Month Adv | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 92.20 | - | 90.80 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 2.6m | -2.5m | 3.3m |
Nonfarm Payrolls | Type: macro_line | Thousands: 1.59e+05 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.473e+05–1.59e+05 | Trend(6pt): 1.473e+05,1.539e+05,1.569e+05,1.583e+05,1.588e+05,1.59e+05
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 2.0m | -1.8m | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 765,000 | -1.1m | 06:30 |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 10:00 |
| Fed Press Conference | - | - | 10:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-30) | |||
| Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.20 | 04:30 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate | 2.10 | 2.10 | 04:30 |
| Personal Income Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| Personal Spending Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.30 | 04:30 |
| GDP Price Index Quarter-over-Quarter Adv | 3.60 | - | 04:30 |
- Durable goods orders miss forecasts while home prices accelerate
- Consumer confidence slips amid rising energy costs
- Equities mixed and yields fall ahead of Fed decision
Yesterday's Recap
US durable goods orders rose 0.3% month-over-month against a 2.5% consensus, while orders excluding transportation increased 0.6% versus 0.8% expected. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index edged up to 1.3. ADP employment change printed 15,000, the goods trade balance narrowed to -101.5 billion dollars, and wholesale inventories rose 0.3% as retail inventories ex-autos fell 0.2%.
S&P Case-Shiller home prices climbed 1.6% year-over-year, beating the 1.3% forecast, yet Conference Board consumer confidence dropped to 90.8. API crude stocks built by 3.296 million barrels. Equities closed mixed with the Dow Jones rising 1.23% to 52,853.06 while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.50%; the 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.85% to 4.65% and WTI crude surged 4.86% to 83.11 dollars per barrel.
The S&P 500 finished at 7,448.03, up 0.47%, while gold reached 4,087.20, up 1.26%. The 2-year Treasury yield eased to 4.31%.
The Day Ahead
Markets await the Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 10:00 ET with consensus pointing to a hold at the prevailing level. EIA weekly crude and gasoline inventory reports follow at 06:30 ET and will influence energy price direction after yesterday’s large build. No additional high-impact US data releases are scheduled.
Treasury futures and equity index futures point to cautious positioning ahead of the policy announcement. Swap markets continue to price limited near-term easing. The MBA 30-year mortgage rate stood at 6.69% with no new print expected today.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP growth registered 2.10% quarter-over-quarter annualized and 2.68% year-over-year in the latest reading, supporting a soft-landing baseline. Retail sales expanded 6.72% year-over-year, indicating steady consumer spending despite the confidence dip. CPI inflation stands at 3.46% year-over-year while the unemployment rate holds at 4.20%, leaving the labor market near full employment.
These figures reinforce expectations that policy will remain data-dependent rather than reactive to single prints. The verified 3.63% fed funds rate provides the anchor for assessing any future adjustments.
