US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
ISM Surges, Equities Rally on Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,736.52 | +1.79% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,733.16 | +3.32% |
| Dow Jones | 54,085.88 | +1.71% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,036.98 | +1.85% |
| USD/JPY | 157.53 | -0.03% |
| EUR/USD | 1.15 | +0.32% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.31% |
| Gold | 4,213.30 | +2.88% |
| WTI Crude | 76.52 | +0.99% |
| Bitcoin | 64,014.38 | -0.06% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.25% | -0.70% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.70% | -1.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI Index | 53.30 | 54 | 55.60 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment Level | 49.70 | - | 52.80 |
| Exports Level | 317,600m | - | 314,700m |
| Imports Level | 395,300m | - | 388,000m |
| Trade Balance | -77,600m | -73,000m | -73,300m |
| JOLTs Job Openings Level | 7.5m | 7.4m | 7.4m |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | -1.10 | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 3.3m | -2m | 2.7m |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.76 | - | - |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.7 (2026-08-03) | Range: 1.24–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.31,4.14,4.03,4.33,4.75,4.7
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change | 98,000 | 70,000 | 04:15 |
| Services Sector PMI | 54 | 54.50 | 06:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -7.2m | -1.5m | 06:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 7,000 | - | 06:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Cook | - | - | 12:05 |
- ISM manufacturing PMI jumps to 55.6, beating forecasts
- JOLTs openings fall to 7.359 million, labor market cools
- Equities gain over 1.7% as 10-year yield drops to 4.70%
Yesterday's Recap
US data releases showed manufacturing resilience alongside softening labor demand. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 from 53.3, exceeding the 54.0 consensus and lifting the employment sub-index to 52.8. Factory orders contracted 0.3% month-over-month while the trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion.
JOLTs job openings declined to 7.359 million against a 7.4 million consensus, signaling reduced hiring momentum. Equity indices advanced sharply with the S&P 500 up 1.79% to 7,736.52 and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 3.32%. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year at 4.25% and the 10-year at 4.70%.
Gold climbed 2.88% to $4,213.30 amid the risk-on tone. Broader market participation reflected optimism that the manufacturing beat could support corporate earnings without reigniting price pressures, given the 3.46% CPI reading through June.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on ADP private payrolls expected at 70,000 and the Services PMI forecast at 54.5. EIA crude and gasoline inventory figures will follow at 6:30 a.m. ET.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook is scheduled to speak at 12:05 p.m. on the economic outlook. Traders will parse any fresh signals on policy calibration given the 3.63% federal funds rate.
Attention will also turn to how yesterday’s strong ISM print influences expectations for today’s ADP release and tomorrow’s Nonfarm Productivity data. The combination of resilient manufacturing and cooling job openings may temper expectations for aggressive policy easing while supporting the view of a gradual rebalancing.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP grew 1.50% annualized in the first quarter and 2.10% year-over-year, while retail sales rose 6.72% over the same period. CPI inflation stood at 3.46% year-over-year through June and unemployment held at 4.20%. These readings indicate moderate expansion with contained price pressures and a still-resilient labor market.
Yesterday’s manufacturing beat and lower job openings together suggest the economy is rebalancing without abrupt contraction. Market participants will monitor whether services data today reinforces this gradual cooling narrative, especially as the 4.20% unemployment rate remains consistent with a stable but not overheating jobs backdrop.
