US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Starts Plunge, Equities Retreat
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,641.16 | -0.87% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,213.16 | -0.72% |
| Dow Jones | 52,759.21 | -1.32% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,992.43 | -1.34% |
| USD/JPY | 158.69 | +0.26% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | +0.27% |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | +0.36% |
| Gold | 4,646.90 | +2.89% |
| WTI Crude | 86.97 | -0.98% |
| Bitcoin | 77,702.11 | +6.39% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | +0.00% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.65% | -1.27% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 15.60 | 11 | 20.60 |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 33 | 35 |
| Net Long-Term TIC Flows Level | 231,200m | 151,400m | 172,700m |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 8,250 | - | 9,500 |
| Building Permits Preliminary | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.4m |
| Housing Starts Level | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.2m |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | -2.60 | - | 5 |
| Export Prices Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.20 | -1.30 |
| Housing Starts Month-over-Month | 19.70 | - | -12.40 |
| Import Prices Month-over-Month | -0.30 | 0.10 | -0.40 |
10-Year Treasury Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.65 (2026-08-19) | Range: 1.25–4.98 | Trend(6pt): 1.25,3.83,4.27,4.46,4.72,4.65
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | 54.50 | - | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53.90 | 53.90 | 05:45 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 54.60 | 54 | 05:45 |
- US housing starts plunged 12.4% MoM to 1.239 million, well below consensus, while building permits rose 5% to 1.443 million.
- Major equity indices fell with the Dow down 1.32% and S&P 500 off 0.87% as 10-year yields eased only modestly to 4.65%.
- Gold jumped 2.89% to $4,646.90 amid safe-haven demand while Bitcoin gained 6.39%.
Yesterday's Recap
US data delivered mixed housing signals on August 18. Housing starts dropped sharply to 1.239 million from 1.415 million prior, missing forecasts, while building permits beat expectations at 1.443 million. Industrial production rose a softer 0.2% MoM and pending home sales fell 2.3%.
Earlier, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 and NAHB housing sentiment edged up to 35. ADP employment showed a solid 9,500 weekly gain. Equities closed lower across the board with the Russell 2000 down 1.34%.
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 1.27% to 4.65% while the 2-year held at 4.19%. Gold and Bitcoin posted strong gains as investors rotated into defensive assets. API crude inventories posted a large draw of 3.28 million barrels, providing support near current price levels.
The Day Ahead
Markets will monitor follow-through from recent housing and production prints into the next session. Boston Fed President remarks in Dover highlighted steady but moderating growth and contained inflation risks. Treasury auctions and any updates on TIC flows could influence yield direction.
Oil inventory data from API showed a large draw, supporting energy prices near $86.97. Equity futures point to continued caution ahead of Nvidia earnings and potential trade-related headlines. USD crosses remain range-bound with EUR/USD at 1.17.
Broader equity weakness may persist if housing softness feeds into growth concerns without offsetting strength in permits.
Other Economic Notes
Broader data continue to show resilient consumer spending with retail sales up 5.01% YoY. GDP expanded 1.5% QoQ annualized in the first quarter and 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Unemployment sits at 4.1% while CPI holds at 3.3% YoY, keeping real-income gains modest.
Higher-for-longer policy rates at 3.63% continue to weigh on interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Equity earnings remain supported by AI-related gains but face pressure from elevated borrowing costs. The combination of cooling housing activity and steady labor-market readings suggests limited immediate relief for rate-sensitive areas of the economy.
