US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Yields Rise as Equities Slip on Soft Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,652.86 | -0.28% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,023.18 | -0.97% |
| Dow Jones | 53,417.16 | +0.26% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,995.08 | -0.76% |
| USD/JPY | 159.27 | +0.23% |
| EUR/USD | 1.17 | -0.13% |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | -0.15% |
| Gold | 4,694.30 | +1.15% |
| WTI Crude | 82.58 | -2.86% |
| Bitcoin | 79,314.84 | +0.44% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.24% | +1.19% |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.74% | +1.07% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.06 | - | -0.08 |
| Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech | - | - | - |
Core PCE Price Index YoY | Type: macro_line | Core PCE YoY %: 3.287 (2026-06-01) | Range: 2.615–5.606 | Trend(6pt): 4.014,5.208,3.159,2.67,3.422,3.287
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 08:00 |
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 9,500 | - | 08:15 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.60 | 1.70 | 09:00 |
| CB Consumer Confidence | 90.80 | - | 10:00 |
| New Home Sales Level | 628,000 | 620,000 | 10:00 |
| New Home Sales Month-over-Month | 1.60 | - | 10:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | 16:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -3.3m | 1.9m | 16:30 |
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.08, missing prior reading
- US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.74% while S&P 500 declined 0.28%
- Gold advanced 1.15% amid global tensions as WTI crude dropped 2.86%
Yesterday's Recap
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index printed at -0.08 for August 24, down from the prior 0.06 and pointing to below-trend US economic momentum. Treasury Secretary Bessent delivered remarks that markets interpreted as neutral on near-term fiscal support. Equities closed mixed, with the S&P 500 falling 0.28% to 7,652.86 and the Nasdaq 100 dropping 0.97% to 29,023.18 while the Dow Jones gained 0.26%.
The Russell 2000 slipped 0.76%. Treasury yields rose across the curve, lifting the 2-year to 4.24% and the 10-year to 4.74%. Gold climbed 1.15% to $4,694.30 as WTI crude fell 2.86% to $82.58 on inventory concerns.
The dollar firmed modestly against the yen and euro.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on two appearances by Fed’s Barkin today that could refine views on labor-market resilience. ADP Employment Change, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices, CB Consumer Confidence, and New Home Sales are all scheduled for release before noon. API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks will provide an early read on energy inventories ahead of the official DOE report.
Tomorrow brings the second estimate of GDP growth, Core PCE inflation, and Durable Goods Orders, all carrying high market impact. Investors will parse the data for confirmation of the 1.50% annualized GDP pace and 3.30% CPI trend already in hand. Positioning ahead of these prints is expected to keep Treasury volatility elevated.
Other Economic Notes
US GDP expanded 1.50% quarter-over-quarter in the latest reading while year-over-year growth held at 2.10%. Unemployment remains at 4.10% and retail sales are running 5.01% higher year-over-year, supporting a picture of moderate expansion. Housing metrics due today will test whether the 1.6% prior Case-Shiller gain can extend amid still-elevated 4.74% 10-year yields.
Consumer confidence data will be watched for signs that 3.30% inflation is eroding household sentiment. Overall, the combination of steady growth and contained price pressures leaves room for policy patience.
