Case-Shiller Surges as Confidence Weakens

RoboMacro Research

Case-Shiller Surges as Confidence Weakens

11,750 ADP Employment Change2.10 S&P/Case-Shiller Home89.40 CB Consumer Confidence607,000 New Home Sales-10.50 New Home Sales

S&P 5007,677.28+0.32%

US 10Y Treasury4.70%-0.84%

WTI Crude80.30-2.50%

Gold4,679.70+0.90%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
S&P 500	7,677.28	+0.32%
Nasdaq 100	29,209.23	+0.64%
Dow Jones	53,577.40	+0.30%
Russell 2000	3,010.02	+0.50%
USD/JPY	159.14	+0.15%
EUR/USD	1.17	-0.02%
GBP/USD	1.36	-0.13%
Gold	4,679.70	+0.90%
WTI Crude	80.30	-2.50%
Bitcoin	78,682.39	+0.15%
US 2Y Treasury	4.24%	+0.00%
US 10Y Treasury	4.70%	-0.84%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Speech by Fed's Barkin	-	-	-
ADP Employment Change Weekly	9,500	-	11,750
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year	1.60	1.70	2.10
CB Consumer Confidence	90.20	-	89.40
New Home Sales Level	678,000	620,000	607,000
New Home Sales Month-over-Month	7.60	-	-10.50
Speech by Fed's Barkin	-	-	-

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	6.77	-	07:00
Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month	0.10	0.20	08:30
Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month	0.30	0.70	08:30
GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Second Estimate	2.10	1.50	08:30
Personal Income Month-over-Month	0.20	0.20	08:30
Personal Spending Month-over-Month	0.30	0.10	08:30
Corporate Profits Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary	0.50	-	08:30
Durable Goods Orders excluding Transp Month-over-Month	0.60	0.60	08:30
GDP Price Index Quarter-over-Quarter Second Estimate	3.60	-	08:30
PCE Price Index Month-over-Month	-0.10	0.10	08:30

Case-Shiller home prices rose 2.1% YoY versus 1.7% consensus while new home sales fell 10.5% MoM to 607,000.
Consumer confidence slipped to 89.4 and ADP employment change beat at 11,750.
Equities gained with S&P 500 up 0.32% and gold rising 0.90% as 10-year yields fell 0.84%.

Yesterday's Recap

US data releases showed mixed housing and sentiment signals. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices accelerated to 2.1% year-over-year, exceeding the 1.7% consensus and prior 1.6% print. ADP employment change increased to 11,750 from 9,500 the prior week.

Consumer confidence declined to 89.4 from 90.2. New home sales dropped to 607,000, missing the 620,000 consensus, with month-over-month sales falling 10.5%. Equity indices advanced modestly, led by the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.64% to 29,209.23.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.84% to 4.70% while gold climbed 0.90% to 4,679.70 and WTI crude fell 2.50% to 80.30. Two speeches by Fed's Barkin occurred without market-moving comments. Verified GDP growth stands at 1.50% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate and 2.10% year-over-year.

Retail sales expanded 5.01% year-over-year. The unemployment rate holds at 4.10%. CPI inflation registers 3.30% year-over-year.

These figures indicate moderate expansion alongside contained price pressures. Housing data from yesterday reinforce resilience in prices despite softer sales volumes. Broader activity remains supported by consumer spending trends embedded in the verified retail sales print.

The Day Ahead

Markets focus on the second GDP estimate and inflation readings. Core PCE price index month-over-month is expected at 0.2% after 0.1% previously. GDP growth quarter-over-quarter second estimate carries a 1.5% consensus versus 2.1% prior.

Personal income and spending are both forecast at 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Durable goods orders are projected to rise 0.7% month-over-month. The MBA 30-year mortgage rate release opens the session at 7:00 ET.

Corporate profits preliminary data complete the slate at 8:30 ET. Durable goods orders excluding transportation are seen rising 0.6%. The committee's stance supports measured adjustments aligned with verified unemployment at 4.10% and GDP growth at 1.50% quarter-over-quarter.

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Other Economic Notes

Verified GDP growth stands at 1.50% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate and 2.10% year-over-year. Retail sales expanded 5.01% year-over-year. The unemployment rate holds at 4.10%.

CPI inflation registers 3.30% year-over-year. These figures indicate moderate expansion alongside contained price pressures. Housing data from yesterday reinforce resilience in prices despite softer sales volumes.

Broader activity remains supported by consumer spending trends embedded in the verified retail sales print. The Federal Reserve maintains the fed funds rate at 3.63%. Recent communications from Governor Lisa Cook emphasized monitoring US and Alaskan economic conditions without signaling immediate policy shifts.

Enforcement actions announced by the Board against former bank employees underscore ongoing supervisory focus rather than monetary easing signals. Swap markets continue to price gradual accommodation consistent with the verified 3.63% policy rate and 3.30% CPI level. Forward guidance remains data-dependent, with the 4.24% two-year yield reflecting expectations anchored near current settings.

Global Macro News

Taiwan charged nine individuals, including Super Micro and Nvidia employees, for smuggling high-end AI servers to China, intensifying US-China technology tensions that could affect supply chains. Qatar urged a return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran frictions, highlighting risks to energy flows and potential upward pressure on US crude imports. Iran faces internal calls to ease Hormuz restrictions as Gulf states develop pipeline alternatives that may reduce the waterway's leverage.

Alberta's premier faces pressure to adopt a coordinated Canadian stance against proposed US tariffs on imports. The Strait of Malacca states pledged to maintain open shipping lanes critical for Asian trade volumes influencing US export competitiveness. These developments add geopolitical layers to US inflation and growth outlooks without immediate domestic data impact.

Fed Watch

The Federal Reserve maintains the fed funds rate at 3.63%. Recent communications from Governor Lisa Cook emphasized monitoring US and Alaskan economic conditions without signaling immediate policy shifts. Enforcement actions announced by the Board against former bank employees underscore ongoing supervisory focus rather than monetary easing signals.

Swap markets continue to price gradual accommodation consistent with the verified 3.63% policy rate and 3.30% CPI level. Forward guidance remains data-dependent, with the 4.24% two-year yield reflecting expectations anchored near current settings. No FOMC vote splits were disclosed in available statements.

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