US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Soft Payrolls Fail to Ease Yields
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,666.45 | +0.19% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,501.56 | +0.31% |
| Dow Jones | 50,926.56 | +0.04% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,806.63 | +0.35% |
| USD/JPY | 157.63 | +0.05% |
| EUR/USD | 1.13 | -0.39% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32 | -0.18% |
| Gold | 4,213.60 | +0.27% |
| WTI Crude | 89.25 | -3.90% |
| Bitcoin | 86,405.25 | +1.83% |
| US 2Y Treasury | 4.85% | +14 bp |
| US 10Y Treasury | 5.29% | +3 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 198,000 | 200,000 | 197,000 |
| Speech by Fed's Barkin | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Collins | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Schmid | - | - | - |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.60 | 55 | 54.50 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 51.20 | - | 52.70 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
| Speech by Fed's Logan | - | - | - |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 133,000 | 90,000 | 29,000 |
10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10) | Type: macro_line | Percent: 5.29 (2026-09-30) | Range: 1.35–5.29 | Trend(6pt): 1.49,3.69,4.36,4.26,5.24,5.29
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- September payrolls rose just 29,000 versus 90,000 expected, with unemployment climbing to 4.2%.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI edged lower to 54.5 while 2-year Treasury yields jumped 14 bp to 4.85%.
- Equities posted modest gains as markets priced steadier policy amid softer labor data.
Yesterday's Recap
US labor-market data released on October 2 surprised sharply to the downside. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by only 29,000 in September against a 90,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month.
Earlier on October 1, initial claims printed 197,000, below the 200,000 forecast, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5 versus 55.0 expected. Equity indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.19% at 7,666.45 and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.31%. Treasury yields rose across the curve, led by the 2-year note climbing 14 bp to 4.85%, while WTI crude fell 3.90% to $89.25.
Multiple Fed speakers, including Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Williams, and Logan, delivered remarks without altering the policy outlook.
The Day Ahead
No major US economic releases or Federal Reserve events are scheduled for October 2 or 3. Markets will therefore focus on incoming corporate earnings and any follow-up commentary from officials already on the calendar. The absence of fresh data leaves the weak September payrolls report as the dominant driver of rate expectations.
Treasury futures and equity positioning are likely to remain sensitive to any hawkish or dovish soundbites from regional Fed presidents. Volatility in energy markets could also influence sentiment given the sharp drop in WTI prices.
Other Economic Notes
The sharp slowdown in job creation reinforces the view that labor-market cooling is underway even as growth remains positive. Retail sales growth of 5.36% year-over-year and GDP expansion near 2.2% annualized continue to support a soft-landing baseline. Higher 2-year yields reflect reduced odds of near-term easing despite the payroll miss, suggesting markets still see the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.88% for now.
Persistent strength in services and manufacturing employment components within the ISM survey indicates underlying resilience that may limit the pace of any policy pivot.
