ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA's Hawkish Tone Lifts AUD; RBNZ Tightens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,806.00 | +0.50% |
| NZX 50 | 13,785.67 | +0.88% |
| AUD/USD | 0.70 | +0.12% |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | +0.02% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.06% |
| BHP | 58.28 | +2.48% |
| Gold | 4,113.70 | -0.41% |
| Brent Crude | 76.01 | -0.38% |
| Bitcoin | 64,194.66 | +0.62% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.99% | +0.42% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.99 (2026-05-01) | Range: 1.135–4.99 | Trend(6pt): 1.135,3.919,4.187,4.423,4.969,4.99
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -2.90 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.60 | - | 20:30 |
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -14 | - | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 800m | - | 18:45 |
- RBA hawkish rhetoric lifts AUD/USD to 0.70 and fuels August hike expectations despite soft growth.
- ASX 200 gains 0.50% and NZX 50 rises 0.88% on commodity support and dairy optimism.
- Westpac and NAB confidence prints due today while RBNZ signals further tightening.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian and New Zealand equity markets advanced on commodity strength and positive risk sentiment. The ASX 200 closed at 8,806.00, up 0.50%, led by BHP which rose 2.48% to 58.28 as iron-ore futures climbed. The NZX 50 finished at 13,785.67, gaining 0.88%.
AUD/USD reached 0.70, adding 0.12%, while NZD/USD edged 0.02% higher to 0.58. Australian 10-year government yields rose 0.42% to 4.99%. No macroeconomic data releases occurred in either Australia or New Zealand on 11 July.
The NZ short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33%. News flow centred on persistent RBA hawkish commentary that reinforced expectations of one more rate increase before easing begins.
The Day Ahead
Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Index are scheduled for release at 20:30 ET, followed by the NAB Business Confidence Index at 21:30 ET. New Zealand will publish its Trade Balance at 18:45 ET on 19 July. Markets will monitor whether the confidence surveys confirm the recent softening in household and business sentiment.
No central-bank speeches or bond auctions are listed for either country in the immediate window. The releases may influence positioning ahead of the RBA’s next policy decision.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s GDP-per-person growth has averaged just 0.7% annually since 2020, marking the weakest decade on record and highlighting structural headwinds. Persistent services inflation and a tight labour market continue to underpin RBA caution even as per-capita output stagnates. New Zealand’s housing market showed renewed momentum with prices rising 0.6% m/m, the strongest reading since February.
Commodity export revenues remain the dominant support for both currencies, with China demand the decisive external variable. Private-credit default risks are rising on the RBA’s watch, adding a layer of financial-stability concern.
Global Macro News
China’s June import data surprised to the upside, signalling improving demand that widened Australia’s trade surplus and narrowed New Zealand’s deficit. <i>↓ p.2</i>
