ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Bullock Comments Pressure AUD Before CPI Release
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,894.00 | +1.39% |
| NZX 50 | 13,861.93 | +0.08% |
| AUD/USD | 0.70 | -0.25% |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | -0.18% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | -0.09% |
| BHP | 59.37 | -1.21% |
| Gold | 4,025.60 | -1.20% |
| Brent Crude | 83.69 | -5.29% |
| Bitcoin | 63,870.70 | +0.23% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Gov Bullock Speech | - | - | - |
Aus vs NZ Policy Rates | Type: macro_line | Aus 3M Rate %: 4.46 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.01–4.46 | Trend(6pt): 0.01,2.95,4.35,4.17,4.34,4.46 | NZ 3M Rate %: 2.68 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.54–5.71 | Trend(6pt): 0.54,4,5.63,3.81,2.56,2.68
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.20 | 17:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4 | 4 | 17:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 17:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.60 | - | 17:30 |
| RBA Hunter Speech | - | - | 14:40 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | 36.60 | - | 17:00 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -1.10 | -0.50 | 17:30 |
| PPI Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.40 | 0.30 | 17:30 |
- RBA Governor Bullock stresses underlying inflation remains too high in Australia, pressuring AUD lower.
- ASX 200 rises 1.39% to 8,894 while AUD/USD slips 0.25% to 0.70 on cautious growth outlook.
- Attention turns to Australian CPI data and RBA Hunter speech due today.
Yesterday's Recap
RBA Governor Bullock delivered remarks that highlighted persistent underlying inflation pressures in Australia, noting the trimmed mean measures still exceed the target band. Markets reacted with AUD/USD declining 0.25% to 0.70 and NZD/USD easing 0.18% to 0.58, while AUD/NZD fell 0.09% to 1.21. The ASX 200 advanced 1.39% to 8,894.00, supported by commodity strength, whereas the NZX 50 gained just 0.08% to 13,861.93.
Australian 10-year government yields dropped 3.03% to 4.83% and NZ short-term rates fell 9.60% to 4.33%. BHP shares declined 1.21% to 59.37 amid mixed mining sentiment, and gold fell 1.20% to 4,025.60. Brent crude dropped sharply 5.29% to 83.69, easing some imported inflation concerns for both economies.
The speech reinforced expectations that the RBA would maintain its 4.35% cash rate for longer.
The Day Ahead
Australian inflation data due at 17:30 ET will show month-over-month CPI expected at 0.2% after a -0.7% print, with year-over-year holding at 4.0% and trimmed mean measures steady at 0.4% month-over-month. RBA Assistant Governor Hunter is scheduled to speak at 14:40 ET, likely elaborating on productivity and inflation dynamics. New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence will print at 17:00 ET, following the prior 36.6 reading.
Australian building permits month-over-month are forecast at -0.5% versus -1.1% previously. These releases will shape near-term views on RBA and RBNZ policy divergence.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's commodity export profile continues to benefit from iron ore and gold linkages to China, though recent oil price weakness has reduced imported inflation risks. New Zealand's dairy-driven economy faces softer export receipts that widen the current account gap. Housing markets in both countries remain sensitive to rate paths, with mortgage holders in Australia particularly exposed to any extended pause at the 4.35% cash rate.
Productivity concerns flagged by RBA officials add downside risks to medium-term growth forecasts for Australia. <i>↓ p.2</i>
