ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AU CPI Misses, RBA Hike Bets Pare Back
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,947.80 | +0.60% |
| NZX 50 | 13,976.67 | +0.83% |
| AUD/USD | 0.70 | -0.53% |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | +0.42% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | -0.38% |
| BHP | 60.18 | +1.36% |
| Gold | 4,128.20 | +2.28% |
| Brent Crude | 90.50 | +7.62% |
| Bitcoin | 63,528.67 | -0.54% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Gov Bullock Speech | - | - | - |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.70 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4 | 4 | 3.80 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
AU-NZ Policy Rate Spread | Type: macro_line | AU Rate %: 4.46 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.01–4.46 | Trend(6pt): 0.01,2.95,4.35,4.17,4.34,4.46 | NZ Rate %: 2.68 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.54–5.71 | Trend(6pt): 0.54,4,5.63,3.81,2.56,2.68
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Hunter Speech | - | - | 14:40 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | 36.60 | - | 17:00 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -1.10 | -1.50 | 17:30 |
| PPI Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.40 | 0.30 | 17:30 |
- Australian June CPI undershot forecasts at 3.8% y/y, trimming RBA hike odds.
- ASX 200 rose 0.60% while AUD/USD fell 0.53% to 0.70 on softer inflation.
- RBA Governor Bullock reiterated underlying inflation remains too high despite the print.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian June inflation data released yesterday showed headline CPI rising 3.8% y/y, below the 4.0% consensus, while the month-over-month print came in at -0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%. The RBA trimmed mean measure also softened to 3.6% y/y. RBA Governor Bullock stated underlying inflation is still too high and kept rate hikes on the table ahead of the August meeting.
Equity markets responded positively, with the ASX 200 advancing 0.60% to 8,947.80 and BHP rising 1.36%. The Australian 10-year government yield fell 3.03% to 4.83%. AUD/USD declined 0.53% to 0.70 amid reduced tightening expectations.
New Zealand data was quiet, with the NZX 50 gaining 0.83% to 13,976.67 on broader risk appetite. Gold rose 2.28% to 4,128.20 and Brent crude climbed 7.62% to 90.50, supporting Australian terms of trade.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on RBA Assistant Governor Hunter’s speech at 14:40 ET today for fresh policy signals. New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence is due at 17:00 ET, offering an early read on July sentiment. Australian preliminary building permits for June are scheduled at 17:30 ET and are expected to fall 1.5% m/m.
Tomorrow brings the Australian PPI release at 17:30 ET, with the quarter-over-quarter rate forecast at 0.3%. These prints will feed into RBA forecasts ahead of the August board meeting. No high-impact New Zealand data is scheduled until later in the week.
Other Economic Notes
Softer Australian inflation has prompted Westpac to shift its RBA rate call, now expecting a hold through year-end. Productivity concerns flagged in recent commentary continue to weigh on medium-term growth prospects for Australia. Commodity linkages remain supportive, with iron ore and gold prices firming on Chinese demand signals.
Housing market data will stay in focus given the sector’s sensitivity to any future RBA moves. New Zealand’s economy continues to show resilience in dairy and tourism exports despite higher interest rates. The RBA cash rate stands at 4.35% while the RBNZ OCR is at 2.50%.
