ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Decision Looms as Markets Hold Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,263.60 | -0.09% |
| NZX 50 | 13,888.24 | +0.46% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | +0.33% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +0.26% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | +0.06% |
| BHP | 62.97 | +0.24% |
| Gold | 4,452.40 | +2.57% |
| Brent Crude | 87.51 | +4.74% |
| Bitcoin | 63,953.14 | -1.38% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
NZ 10Y Govt Yield vs Aus | Type: macro_line | Aus Yield (%): 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.282–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.282,3.696,4.148,4.421,4.982,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -5 | - | 21:30 |
| RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.35 | 4.35 | 00:30 |
| Press Conference by RBA | - | - | 01:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Kent | - | - | 20:15 |
| Business NZ PMI Index | 59.70 | - | 18:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Gov Bullock | - | - | 19:30 |
| Home Loans Quarter-over-Quarter | -4.30 | - | 21:30 |
| Investment Lending for Homes | -3 | - | 21:30 |
- RBA expected to hold cash rate at 4.35% amid June CPI at 3.75% y/y.
- ASX 200 edges lower while NZX 50 advances on dairy support.
- AUD/USD climbs to 0.71 as gold surges 2.57% on safe-haven demand.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets showed modest divergence across the Tasman. The ASX 200 closed at 9,263.60, down 0.09%, with BHP rising 0.24% to 62.97 amid firmer iron-ore futures. The NZX 50 gained 0.46% to 13,888.24, supported by utility and dairy names.
AUD/USD advanced 0.33% to 0.71 while NZD/USD rose 0.26% to 0.59. Australian 10-year government yields fell 3.03% to 4.83%. NZ short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%.
Gold jumped 2.57% to 4,452.40 and Brent crude climbed 4.74% to 87.51, lifting commodity-linked sentiment for both currencies. No major Australian or New Zealand data releases occurred on 9 August. Commodity price gains improved terms of trade, with iron ore and gold supporting Australian export revenues while dairy prices aided New Zealand.
The Day Ahead
Attention centres on the RBA cash rate decision early on 11 August, with consensus pointing to a hold at 4.35%. NAB Business Confidence for July releases tonight at 21:30 AEST. RBA Governor Bullock speaks on 13 August alongside a speech by Assistant Governor Kent.
New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI for July prints on 13 August. Australian home loans and investment lending data also appear that day. Markets will watch for any signals on the timing of future easing given June CPI at 3.75% y/y.
The RBA committee voted to hold, maintaining the cash rate at the verified 4.35% level. Press conference remarks after the decision may clarify the board’s reaction to housing and services inflation components.
Other Economic Notes
June Australian CPI at 3.75% y/y keeps the RBA on a cautious path. New Zealand June CPI at 4.06% y/y leaves the RBNZ with more room to ease further. Housing markets remain sensitive in both countries, with mortgage-rate transmission still feeding into consumer spending.
Commodity exports continue to anchor terms of trade, particularly iron ore and gold for Australia and dairy for New Zealand. China demand signals stay the dominant external driver for both economies. Recent employment data and retail sales prints underscore divergent growth momentum, with Australian job gains outpacing expectations while New Zealand sales beat forecasts, influencing policy calibration.
