ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Holds at 4.35% as NAB Confidence Holds Flat
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,209.40 | -0.45% |
| NZX 50 | 13,825.30 | +0.64% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | -0.03% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.46% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.42% |
| BHP | 63.45 | +0.00% |
| Gold | 4,405.50 | -0.08% |
| Brent Crude | 86.89 | -2.35% |
| Bitcoin | 63,323.05 | -0.13% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -6 | - | -6 |
| RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 |
| Press Conference by RBA | - | - | - |
| Speech by RBA's Kent | - | - | - |
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.282–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.282,3.696,4.148,4.421,4.982,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business NZ PMI Index | 59.70 | - | 14:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Gov Bullock | - | - | 15:30 |
| Home Loans Quarter-over-Quarter | -4.30 | - | 17:30 |
| Investment Lending for Homes | -3 | - | 17:30 |
- RBA keeps cash rate at 4.35% with committee noting further hikes remain possible
- NAB Business Confidence Index holds at -6 while Australian 10-year yields fall 3%
- ASX 200 slips 0.45% as NZX 50 rises 0.64% on defensive buying
Yesterday's Recap
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting, citing persistent inflation pressures with Australia CPI YoY at 3.75%. Governor Bullock’s press conference reinforced that further tightening stays on the table if price data fail to moderate. NAB Business Confidence printed -6, matching the prior reading and signalling steady but subdued business sentiment across Australia.
RBA Assistant Governor Kent delivered remarks that highlighted risks from strong domestic demand and commodity price volatility. Australian 10-year government yields dropped 3.03% to 4.83% as markets priced a prolonged hold. The ASX 200 fell 0.45% to 9,209.40 while BHP shares were flat at 63.45.
AUD/USD eased 0.03% to 0.71 amid thin trading volumes. NZX 50 gained 0.64% to 13,825.30 on defensive buying, while NZD/USD fell 0.46% to 0.59 and AUD/NZD rose 0.42% to 1.21. Brent crude declined 2.35% to 86.89, and gold eased 0.08% to 4,405.50.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI is due at 14:30 ET and will provide the first read on August manufacturing momentum after July’s 59.7 print. RBA Governor Bullock speaks at 15:30 ET and is expected to elaborate on the board’s tolerance for above-target inflation. Australian home loans and investment lending data follow at 17:30 ET, with both series likely to reflect ongoing high borrowing costs.
Markets will also monitor any fresh signals on the timing of the next RBA statement release. NZD/USD may react to the PMI outcome given its sensitivity to domestic growth indicators. NZ short-term rates eased 9.60% to 4.33%, underscoring market expectations for policy divergence.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity export base continues to benefit from iron-ore price strength tied to Chinese policy support, supporting the trade balance and AUD. New Zealand’s dairy sector faces softer Chinese demand, keeping external accounts under modest pressure and reinforcing the case for RBNZ easing. Housing markets in both countries remain sensitive to rate paths, with Australia’s higher starting point for rates limiting price gains relative to New Zealand.
Broader Asia-Pacific growth concerns are feeding through to equity and currency volatility across the region. <i>↓ p.2</i>
