ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Keeps Hikes on Table as AUD Gains
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,115.20 | -0.80% |
| NZX 50 | 13,854.38 | +0.21% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | +0.40% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +0.63% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | -0.25% |
| BHP | 61.35 | -3.31% |
| Gold | 4,437.30 | +1.69% |
| Brent Crude | 88.52 | +1.67% |
| Bitcoin | 63,046.10 | +0.03% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Government Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield (%): 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.282–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.282,3.696,4.148,4.421,4.982,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 4.10 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 83.90 | - | 20:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Hauser | - | - | 22:45 |
| Employment Change | 76,300 | 12,500 | 21:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 29,300 | - | 21:30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.50 | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 20m | 320m | 18:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52 | - | 19:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 53.60 | - | 19:00 |
- RBA signals further rate hikes remain possible despite soft inflation and jobs data
- ASX 200 falls 0.80% while NZX 50 rises 0.21% on defensive flows
- AUD/USD gains 0.40% to 0.71 amid mixed global inflation signals
Yesterday's Recap
Australian and New Zealand equity markets diverged on 15 August. The ASX 200 declined 0.80% to 9,115.20 while the NZX 50 advanced 0.21% to 13,854.38. AUD/USD rose 0.40% to 0.71 and NZD/USD climbed 0.63% to 0.59.
The Australia 10-year government yield fell 3.03% to 4.83% and the NZ short-term rate dropped 9.60% to 4.33%. BHP fell 3.31% to 61.35 despite stable iron-ore prices. Gold rose 1.69% to 4,437.30 and Brent crude gained 1.67% to 88.52.
No major Australian or New Zealand data releases occurred. Commodity linkages to China remained in focus, with iron-ore holding near US$105.50/t after blast-furnace utilisation rose to 92%. Thermal coal eased to US$118/t and LNG to US$11.80/MMBtu.
Dairy prices slipped 1.8% to US$3,820/t, pressuring New Zealand export receipts and widening the current-account gap risk beyond 6% of GDP.
The Day Ahead
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Index for Australia are due at 20:30 on 17 August. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser is scheduled to speak at 22:45 on 18 August. Australian employment data including the unemployment rate and full-time jobs change follow at 21:30 on 19 August.
New Zealand will release its trade balance at 18:45 on 20 August. S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs for Australia are also set for 19:00 on 20 August. These releases will test labour-market resilience against softer domestic demand indicators, with participation already at a record 67.0% and unemployment at 4.4%.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity exports remain tightly linked to Chinese steel output and iron-ore demand. New Zealand’s dairy prices continue to weigh on export receipts and the current-account balance. Housing approvals in Australia showed modest recovery while retail sales in New Zealand cooled further.
Both economies face external pressure from China’s growth trajectory and global commodity price swings. Labour-market resilience in Australia contrasts with softer domestic demand indicators in New Zealand. July import volumes for iron-ore rose 4% y/y, supporting Australia’s trade surplus near A$10 bn.
