ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Keeps Hike Option Open as AUD Holds Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,115.20 | -0.80% |
| NZX 50 | 13,721.98 | -0.96% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | +0.61% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +0.87% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | -0.29% |
| BHP | 61.35 | -3.31% |
| Gold | 4,473.00 | +2.11% |
| Brent Crude | 90.66 | +2.42% |
| Bitcoin | 64,220.00 | +2.23% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.282–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.282,3.696,4.148,4.421,4.982,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 4.10 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 83.90 | - | 20:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Hauser | - | - | 22:45 |
| Employment Change | 76,300 | 15,000 | 21:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 29,300 | - | 21:30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.40 | 21:30 |
| Trade Balance | 20m | 320m | 18:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52 | - | 19:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 53.60 | - | 19:00 |
- RBA signals persistent hawkishness while RBNZ holds mortgage rules steady.
- ASX 200 falls 0.80% and NZX 50 drops 0.96% on risk-off flows.
- AUD/USD rises 0.61% to 0.71 amid mixed global inflation signals.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian and New Zealand equity markets declined sharply, with the ASX 200 falling 0.80% to 9,115.20 and the NZX 50 slipping 0.96% to 13,721.98. AUD/USD advanced 0.61% to 0.71 while NZD/USD gained 0.87% to 0.59, reflecting selective support from commodity prices. Australia 10-year government yields eased 3.03% to 4.83% and NZ short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%.
Gold rose 2.11% to 4,473.00 and Brent crude climbed 2.42% to 90.66, bolstering terms of trade for both economies. BHP shares fell 3.31% to 61.35 despite firmer iron-ore sentiment. No major data releases occurred in Australia or New Zealand on 16 August.
The Day Ahead
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Index for Australia are scheduled for release at 20:30 ET today, providing an early read on household sentiment ahead of employment data. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser is due to speak at 22:45 ET on 18 August, likely reinforcing the central bank’s data-dependent stance. Australian employment figures on 19 August will test the 4.4% unemployment rate consensus while New Zealand releases its trade balance on 20 August.
S&P Global flash PMIs for Australia on 20 August will gauge manufacturing and services momentum. Markets will monitor any signals on China demand given its dominant role in Australian commodity exports.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity export profile continues to tie growth closely to Chinese steel output and blast-furnace utilisation, with iron ore and LNG prices directly influencing fiscal receipts and the AUD. New Zealand’s dairy sector and construction activity remain key domestic drivers, supported by contained housing risks under current RBNZ lending rules. Both economies face divergent inflation paths, with Australia’s 3.75% CPI and New Zealand’s 4.06% CPI shaping separate rate trajectories.
State debt levels in Australia have drawn RBA attention, highlighting fiscal risks that could affect long-term yields.
Global Macro News
Hawkish RBA commentary has kept the option of further tightening on the table despite softer Chinese data, supporting AUD against the yen. RBNZ signals point to a September hold followed by eventual easing, widening the policy divergence with the RBA. <i>↓ p.2</i>
