ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AU Confidence Rebounds After RBA Hold
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,073.20 | -0.46% |
| NZX 50 | 13,866.18 | +1.05% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | +0.02% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.27% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.28% |
| BHP | 63.85 | +2.65% |
| Gold | 4,400.30 | -0.40% |
| Brent Crude | 91.00 | +0.14% |
| Bitcoin | 64,615.14 | +0.17% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 4.10 | - | 6 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 83.90 | - | 88.90 |
Australia Employment Level | Type: macro_line | Employment (000s): 77.36 (2026-06-01) | Range: 73.41–77.6 | Trend(6pt): 73.69,77.3,76.72,76.9,76.99,77.36
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by RBA's Hauser | - | - | 18:45 |
| Employment Change | 76,300 | 15,000 | 17:30 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 29,300 | - | 17:30 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.40 | 17:30 |
| Trade Balance | 20m | 320m | 14:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52 | - | 15:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 53.60 | - | 15:00 |
- Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose to 88.9 in Australia, with the change measure climbing to 6.
- ASX 200 declined 0.46% while NZX 50 gained 1.05%; AUD/USD edged up to 0.71.
- RBA cash rate stands at 4.35% and RBNZ OCR at 2.50%, with both central banks maintaining current settings.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian consumer sentiment improved markedly after the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 88.9 from 83.9, and the monthly change measure reached 6 versus the prior 4.1. Markets reflected mixed regional performance, with the ASX 200 falling 0.46% to 9,073.20 while the NZX 50 advanced 1.05% to 13,866.18.
The Australian dollar firmed modestly to 0.71 against the US dollar, and the 10-year government yield eased 3.03% to 4.83%. New Zealand short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%. Commodity moves were contained, with BHP rising 2.65% to 63.85 and gold slipping 0.40% to 4,400.30.
The data releases underscored resilient household sentiment in Australia despite ongoing caution about the economic outlook. AUD/NZD rose 0.28% to 1.21 as regional equities diverged on local drivers.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the RBA speech by Hauser at 18:45 ET, which may clarify the central bank’s reaction function after the recent hold. Australian employment data due tomorrow are expected to show a sharp slowdown, with consensus calling for a 15,000 rise in total employment after the prior 76,300 gain and the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. New Zealand will release its trade balance at 14:45 ET, with the surplus forecast to widen to NZ$320 million.
Flash PMI readings for Australia on Friday will provide the first read on August activity in manufacturing and services. These releases will shape expectations for the RBA’s next policy meeting and the trajectory of AUD. NZD faces additional pressure from US-Iran tensions noted in market commentary.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s economy remains closely tied to commodity exports, particularly iron ore and LNG, with China demand the dominant external driver. BHP’s 2.65% gain highlights continued strength in mining equities despite softer Chinese data. New Zealand’s dairy and tourism sectors continue to face headwinds from weaker global growth and elevated domestic rates.
Housing markets in both countries remain sensitive to rate expectations, with lending rules unchanged in New Zealand. <i>↓ p.2</i>
