ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Minutes, CPI Data to Guide AUD
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,058.90 | -0.27% |
| NZX 50 | 13,972.66 | +0.38% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.67% |
| NZD/USD | 0.60 | +0.44% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | +0.09% |
| BHP | 65.16 | -0.90% |
| Gold | 4,680.60 | +3.64% |
| Brent Crude | 94.39 | +0.65% |
| Bitcoin | 77,282.44 | +0.26% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment %: 4.428 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.437–5.238 | Trend(6pt): 4.706,3.517,4.091,4.078,4.371,4.428
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | 21:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Jacobs | - | - | 00:00 |
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | 3.40 | 0.40 | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | - | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.80 | 3.20 | 21:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | - | 21:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.60 | - | 21:30 |
| RBA Bulletin | - | - | 21:30 |
- RBA minutes and August inflation prints due this week to clarify rate path amid sticky services prices
- AUD rises 0.67% to 0.72 on broad USD weakness while ASX 200 slips 0.27% and NZX 50 gains 0.38%
- RBNZ OCR at 2.50% versus RBA cash rate at 4.35% as NZ opposition pledges dual mandate return
Yesterday's Recap
Australian and New Zealand equity markets diverged on 22 August with the ASX 200 closing at 9,058.90, down 0.27%, while the NZX 50 advanced 0.38% to 13,972.66. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.67% to 0.72 against the US dollar and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.44% to 0.60, narrowing AUD/NZD to 1.20. Gold surged 3.64% to 4,680.60, supporting commodity-linked currencies, while Brent crude added 0.65% to 94.39.
Australian 10-year yields fell 3.03% to 4.83% and NZ short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%. No major data releases occurred in either country, leaving markets focused on positioning ahead of the RBA minutes and inflation prints. BHP declined 0.90% to 65.16 amid mixed mining sentiment.
The Day Ahead
The RBA will release meeting minutes on 24 August at 21:30 ET, offering fresh signals on the board’s tolerance for persistent inflation. Australia’s Q2 construction work done, July CPI month-over-month and year-over-year, plus RBA trimmed mean measures are all scheduled for 25 August at 21:30 ET. A speech by RBA’s Jacobs on 25 August at 00:00 ET will add policy colour.
The RBA Bulletin follows on 26 August. New Zealand has no high-impact releases, allowing focus on Australian data and any China-related commodity updates. Markets will watch whether the inflation prints align with the RBA’s 3.75% June year-over-year reading.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s inflation remains elevated at 3.75% year-over-year, keeping the RBA cautious despite softer recent jobs data that revived cut expectations. New Zealand inflation expectations are cooling, supporting the RBNZ’s lower 2.50% OCR and allowing the currency to extend gains. Both economies remain sensitive to China demand, with iron ore and dairy prices directly influencing trade balances and currency valuations.
Housing markets in Australia and New Zealand continue to transmit policy effects, with rents contributing to services inflation. Commodity strength, especially gold at 4,680.60, provides a buffer for the Australian external accounts.
