ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Minutes Reinforce Hold as CPI Data Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,103.10 | +0.49% |
| NZX 50 | 13,992.72 | +0.80% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | -0.05% |
| NZD/USD | 0.60 | +0.07% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.20 | -0.14% |
| BHP | 67.67 | +0.82% |
| Gold | 4,721.80 | +1.75% |
| Brent Crude | 86.59 | -6.05% |
| Bitcoin | 78,910.67 | -0.07% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| Speech by RBA's Jacobs | - | - | - |
Australia Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment %: 4.428 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.437–5.238 | Trend(6pt): 4.706,3.517,4.091,4.078,4.371,4.428
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | 3.40 | 0.50 | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.80 | 21:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.80 | 3.30 | 21:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 21:30 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.60 | 3.50 | 21:30 |
| RBA Bulletin | - | - | 21:30 |
| ANZ Business Confidence | 56.10 | - | 21:00 |
| Company Gross Profits Quarter-over-Quarter | -1.30 | - | 21:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | 7.20 | - | 21:30 |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -29.90 | - | 19:00 |
- RBA minutes underscore cautious stance as Australian inflation data looms today.
- ASX 200 rises 0.49% while AUD/USD edges lower amid commodity volatility.
- RBNZ signals potential hike despite easing inflation expectations in New Zealand.
Yesterday's Recap
The RBA released its meeting minutes on 24 August, reinforcing a data-dependent approach to policy with the cash rate held at 4.35%. Australian markets advanced as the ASX 200 climbed 0.49% to 9,103.10, led by BHP gains of 0.82%. The NZX 50 outperformed with an 0.80% rise to 13,992.72.
AUD/USD fell 0.05% to 0.72 while NZD/USD gained 0.07% to 0.60. Australia’s 10-year government yield dropped 3.03% to 4.83%, and the NZ short-term rate plunged 9.60% to 4.33%. Gold surged 1.75% to 4,721.80, supporting Australian commodity exporters, while Brent crude fell 6.05% to 86.59.
A speech by RBA’s Jacobs added to the steady tone without shifting market expectations. Broader commodity strength and safe-haven flows lifted equities across both markets, with iron-ore futures providing additional support to resource names.
The Day Ahead
Australian Q2 construction work done, inflation rate MoM and YoY, plus RBA trimmed mean CPI prints are due at 21:30 ET, with consensus pointing to a 3.3% YoY headline rate. The RBA Bulletin follows on 26 August. New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence reading arrives on 30 August.
Australian company gross profits and building permits data will follow later in the week. These releases will shape views on whether the RBA maintains its 4.35% cash rate through year-end. Construction and inflation figures together will clarify the extent of any cooling in activity and price pressures, informing expectations for steady policy amid resilient housing and services sectors.
Other Economic Notes
The ACTU’s withdrawal from RBA inflation surveys drew sharp criticism for undermining policy input. The Business Council of Australia warned against tax-and-redistribute strategies, urging direct voter engagement instead. New Zealand’s rezoning reforms offer Australia lessons on easing housing supply constraints.
Middle East tensions continue to pose upside risks to Australian inflation via energy channels. China demand signals remain pivotal for both economies’ commodity and dairy exports. <i>↓ p.2</i>
