ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Australia CPI Sticks at 3.5%, RBA Holds
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,164.60 | +0.68% |
| NZX 50 | 14,013.21 | +0.15% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.30% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.35% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.62% |
| BHP | 67.40 | -0.40% |
| Gold | 4,648.50 | +0.22% |
| Brent Crude | 86.56 | -2.28% |
| Bitcoin | 78,446.17 | -0.15% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| Speech by RBA's Jacobs | - | - | - |
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | 4.30 | 0.50 | -2.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.80 | 1 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
Australia Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment %: 4.428 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.437–5.238 | Trend(6pt): 4.706,3.517,4.091,4.078,4.371,4.428
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Bulletin | - | - | 17:30 |
- Australia July CPI rose 3.5% YoY, above consensus 3.3%, with trimmed mean at 3.6%.
- Construction work done fell 2.1% QoQ versus consensus +0.5%.
- ASX 200 gained 0.68% while AUD/USD rose 0.30% to 0.72.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian data dominated releases. July inflation printed 3.5% YoY and 1.0% MoM, exceeding forecasts, while the RBA trimmed mean rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY. Construction work done contracted 2.1% QoQ after a 4.3% prior gain.
RBA meeting minutes and a speech by Deputy Governor Jacobs provided no fresh signals on policy. Markets reacted with the ASX 200 advancing 0.68% to 9,164.60 and AUD/USD climbing 0.30% to 0.72. The 10-year Australian government yield fell 3.03% to 4.83%.
NZD/USD slipped 0.35% to 0.59 amid broader USD strength. Commodity linkages remained supportive, with iron-ore prices firming on selective Chinese stimulus and gold holding near 4,648.50 as a safe-haven asset. Brent crude eased 2.28% to 86.56, trimming imported inflation risks for both economies.
The Day Ahead
The RBA Bulletin at 17:30 ET will offer updated staff analysis on inflation persistence and labour-market conditions. Markets will parse any commentary on the recent CPI overshoot and its implications for the 4.35% cash rate. No major New Zealand data are scheduled.
Attention will also turn to commodity price updates, particularly iron ore and LNG, given their direct link to Australian export revenues. Positioning ahead of month-end flows may keep AUD and NZD volatility contained. Broader focus will remain on US dollar strength following recent PCE data and any follow-through effects on ANZ rate expectations.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's commodity-export model continues to buffer the economy despite domestic inflation pressures. Iron-ore and LNG prices remain supported by selective Chinese stimulus measures, underpinning the trade surplus and AUD. New Zealand's dairy sector provides a parallel buffer, with recent GDT gains aiding the current-account position.
Housing-market linkages remain critical in both countries, where elevated rates have slowed credit growth but not yet triggered sharp price corrections. China demand signals stay the dominant external variable for ANZ growth outlooks. The 3.50% July CPI outcome highlights persistence in services and fuel components, while New Zealand's 4.06% CPI YoY adds separate pressure on the RBNZ.
