ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Holds as AUD Rises on Hike Bets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,127.80 | -0.40% |
| NZX 50 | 13,880.05 | -0.95% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.46% |
| NZD/USD | 0.60 | -0.41% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.86% |
| BHP | 66.40 | -1.48% |
| Gold | 4,662.40 | +1.40% |
| Brent Crude | 88.66 | +0.93% |
| Bitcoin | 79,889.98 | +1.09% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| Speech by RBA's Jacobs | - | - | - |
| Construction Work Done Quarter-over-Quarter | 4.30 | 0.50 | -2.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.80 | 1 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.80 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| RBA Bulletin | - | - | "" |
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.282–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.282,3.696,4.148,4.421,4.982,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ Business Confidence | 56.10 | - | 21:00 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.50 | - | 22:00 |
| Press Conference by RBNZ | - | - | 23:00 |
- Australia CPI YoY eased to 3.5% but trimmed mean held at 3.6%, keeping RBA hike odds elevated.
- Construction work done fell 2.1% QoQ, pointing to softer domestic demand in Australia.
- AUD/USD climbed to 0.72 while ASX 200 slipped 0.40% on rate-hike concerns.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian data dominated releases. Construction work done contracted 2.1% QoQ against a 0.5% consensus, signalling weaker building activity. CPI rose 1.0% MoM and 3.5% YoY, above expectations, while the trimmed mean CPI advanced 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY.
RBA meeting minutes and a speech by RBA's Jacobs reinforced the central bank's data-dependent stance at the 4.35% cash rate. Markets reacted with the ASX 200 falling 0.40% to 9,127.80 and BHP declining 1.48%. AUD/USD gained 0.46% to 0.72 on increased rate-hike pricing.
In New Zealand, NZX 50 dropped 0.95% to 13,880.05 and NZD/USD eased 0.41% amid RBNZ hike speculation at the 2.50% OCR. Gold rose 1.40% to 4,662.40, lending further support to the commodity-linked AUD.
The Day Ahead
Attention shifts to New Zealand. ANZ Business Confidence is due on 30 August, offering an early read on sentiment ahead of the RBNZ decision. Markets price a possible OCR move on 1 September, with the accompanying press conference likely to clarify the inflation outlook given New Zealand CPI YoY at 4.06%.
No major Australian releases are scheduled, leaving commodity prices and China data as key external drivers for AUD. RBA Bulletin commentary may also surface, providing further colour on policy transmission. Brent crude at 88.66 and iron-ore futures will influence terms of trade for both currencies.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's commodity export base continues to anchor the economy, with iron ore and LNG receipts sensitive to Chinese steel demand. The recent CPI print above consensus has lifted three major banks' forecasts for an RBA hike later this year, tightening financial conditions via higher swap rates. New Zealand's dairy sector provides partial offset, yet housing credit growth remains subdued, limiting domestic momentum.
Both economies face China-linked volatility, though Australia's larger mining sector amplifies the impact on fiscal revenues and the trade balance. Australia 10Y yields fell to 4.83% while NZ short-term rates eased to 4.33%.
