ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AUD Climbs on RBA Hike Bets as RBNZ Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,092.30 | +0.60% |
| NZX 50 | 13,768.18 | -0.81% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | -0.48% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.54% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.04% |
| BHP | 67.30 | +1.36% |
| Gold | 4,529.90 | -1.73% |
| Brent Crude | 88.10 | -1.78% |
| Bitcoin | 78,903.05 | +1.38% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.282–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.282,3.696,4.148,4.421,4.982,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ Business Confidence | 56.10 | - | 21:00 |
| Company Gross Profits Quarter-over-Quarter | -1.30 | - | 21:30 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | 7.20 | -4.80 | 21:30 |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -29.90 | - | 19:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | 0.30 | 21:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.50 | - | 21:30 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.50 | 2.75 | 22:00 |
| Press Conference by RBNZ | - | - | 23:00 |
| Speech by RBA's Jones | - | - | 21:00 |
| Trade Balance | 1,929m | 1,390m | 21:30 |
- Australian dollar strengthens to three-month high as hot CPI lifts RBA rate-hike odds.
- Markets price 25bp RBNZ OCR lift to 2.75% on 1 September amid firm NZ growth.
- ASX 200 rises 0.60% while NZX 50 falls 0.81% on divergent commodity and dairy flows.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity and currency markets reflected shifting rate expectations across the Tasman. The ASX 200 closed at 9,092.30, up 0.60%, led by BHP which gained 1.36% on firmer iron-ore and copper prices. The NZX 50 declined 0.81% to 13,768.18 as dairy futures eased.
AUD/USD fell 0.48% to 0.72 while NZD/USD fell 0.54% to 0.59, narrowing AUD/NZD by 0.04% to 1.21. Australian 10-year yields fell 3.03% to 4.83% and NZ short-term rates fell 9.60% to 4.33%. Gold slipped 1.73% to 4,529.90 and Brent crude eased 1.78% to 88.10, tempering resource-linked AUD support.
No major ANZ data prints occurred on 29 August, leaving price action driven by offshore flows and positioning ahead of the RBNZ meeting. Bitcoin rose 1.38% to 78,903.05 amid broader risk appetite.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence prints at 21:00 ET tonight, followed by Australian company gross profits at 21:30 ET. Building permits and Ai Group industry data follow on 31 August and 1 September. Australian Q2 GDP is due 1 September at 21:30 ET with consensus 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.
The RBNZ decision at 22:00 ET on 1 September carries a 2.75% consensus, up from the current 2.50% OCR, with a press conference at 23:00 ET. RBA speakers Jones and Hunter address markets on 2 September alongside the trade balance release. These releases will clarify growth momentum and policy divergence between the two central banks.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s 3.50% July CPI has reinforced expectations that the RBA cash rate will stay at 4.35% for longer. New Zealand’s 4.06% June CPI and resilient growth have aligned economist forecasts for further RBNZ tightening. Commodity linkages remain central: iron ore, coal and LNG exports underpin Australian fiscal revenues while dairy receipts support New Zealand’s current account.
Housing markets in both countries continue to transmit policy effects, with building consents and house prices sensitive to rate paths. China’s demand outlook stays the dominant external driver for both economies, influencing export volumes and terms of trade.
