ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBNZ Hike Looms as AUD Firms on RBA Bets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,038.20 | -0.98% |
| NZX 50 | 13,917.30 | +0.27% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | -0.36% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.60% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.22% |
| BHP | 67.30 | +1.36% |
| Gold | 4,497.80 | +0.44% |
| Brent Crude | 88.22 | -1.22% |
| Bitcoin | 78,870.56 | +1.55% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ Business Confidence | 56.10 | - | 53.70 |
| Company Gross Profits Quarter-over-Quarter | -1.50 | - | 1.80 |
AU 10Y vs NZ Short Rate | Type: macro_line | AU 10Y Yield (%): 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.282–4.982 | Trend(6pt): 1.282,3.696,4.148,4.421,4.982,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | 7.20 | -4.80 | 21:30 |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -29.90 | - | 19:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | 0.30 | 21:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 1.80 | 21:30 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.50 | 2.75 | 22:00 |
| Press Conference by RBNZ | - | - | 23:00 |
| Speech by RBA's Jones | - | - | 21:00 |
| Trade Balance | 1,929m | 1,400m | 21:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | 01:15 |
- NZ ANZ Business Confidence fell to 53.7 in August while Australian company gross profits rose 1.8% QoQ.
- ASX 200 declined 0.98% to 9,038.20 as NZX 50 gained 0.27% to 13,917.30.
- Markets price RBNZ OCR lift to 2.75% today with RBA cash rate steady at 4.35%.
Yesterday's Recap
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped to 53.7 from 56.1, signalling softer sentiment ahead of the RBNZ decision. Australia posted a 1.8% QoQ rebound in company gross profits after a 1.5% contraction. The ASX 200 fell 0.98% to close at 9,038.20 while the NZX 50 rose 0.27% to 13,917.30.
AUD/USD eased 0.36% to 0.72 and NZD/USD slipped 0.60% to 0.59, leaving AUD/NZD 0.22% higher at 1.21. Australian 10-year yields fell 3.03% to 4.83% and NZ short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%. BHP rose 1.36% to 67.30 as gold advanced 0.44% to 4,497.80.
Brent crude eased 1.22% to 88.22 while Bitcoin gained 1.55% to 78,870.56, reflecting mixed risk appetite. The moves occurred against a backdrop of firmer commodity prices supporting Australian export revenues even as global equity sentiment remained cautious.
The Day Ahead
Australia releases preliminary building permits and the Ai Group Industry Index before GDP growth prints at 0.3% QoQ and 1.8% YoY. The RBNZ is expected to lift the OCR from 2.50% to 2.75% at 22:00 ET, followed by a press conference. RBA’s Jones speaks at 21:00 ET on 2 September and Hunter the next day.
Australia’s trade balance is also due, with markets watching for confirmation of commodity-driven surplus strength. Building permits are forecast to contract 4.8% MoM after a 7.2% prior gain, while the Ai Group index is expected to remain deeply negative. GDP figures will provide the first read on Q2 activity and help calibrate RBA policy expectations.
The RBNZ decision and subsequent press conference will dominate NZD flows, with any hawkish surprises likely to widen the AUD/NZD spread further.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity exports remain supported by iron-ore and gold prices despite softer Brent crude. New Zealand’s dairy and construction sectors face headwinds from cooling domestic demand signals in retail sales and business surveys. Housing markets in both countries continue to influence inflation persistence, with Australia’s CPI YoY at 3.50% and New Zealand’s at 4.06%.
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