ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBNZ Hike Looms as Aussie GDP Prints
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,076.00 | +0.42% |
| NZX 50 | 13,786.90 | -0.94% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | -0.25% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.51% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.29% |
| BHP | 66.84 | +0.92% |
| Gold | 4,376.90 | -1.22% |
| Brent Crude | 95.07 | +5.06% |
| Bitcoin | 77,256.96 | -1.64% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ Business Confidence | 56.10 | - | 53.70 |
| Company Gross Profits Quarter-over-Quarter | -1.50 | - | 1.80 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | 6.90 | -4.80 | -3.60 |
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.609–4.982 | Trend(5pt): 1.71,3.551,4.141,4.267,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ai Group Industry Index | -29.90 | - | 19:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | 0.30 | 21:30 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 1.80 | 21:30 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.50 | 2.75 | 22:00 |
| Press Conference by RBNZ | - | - | 23:00 |
| Speech by RBA's Jones | - | - | 21:00 |
| Trade Balance | 1,929m | 1,400m | 21:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | 01:15 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 6 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 88.90 | - | 20:30 |
- NZ business confidence fell to 53.7 in August while Australian company profits rebounded 1.8% QoQ.
- ASX 200 rose 0.42% to 9,076 as NZX 50 dropped 0.94%; AUD/USD eased to 0.71.
- RBNZ decision and Australian GDP release today set to drive ANZ rate and currency moves.
Yesterday's Recap
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence declined to 53.7 in August from 56.1, signalling cooling sentiment ahead of the RBNZ meeting. Australian company gross profits rose 1.8% QoQ after a 1.5% contraction, while preliminary building permits fell 3.6% MoM against expectations of a 4.8% drop. Equity markets diverged with the ASX 200 advancing 0.42% to 9,076.00 and the NZX 50 retreating 0.94% to 13,786.90.
The Australian dollar eased 0.25% to 0.71 against the USD while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.51% to 0.59. Australian 10-year yields declined 3.03% to 4.83% and NZ short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%. Brent crude surged 5.06% to 95.07 amid stronger commodity sentiment that supported BHP shares up 0.92%.
Australian private sector credit growth slowed to 8.4% in July, consistent with tighter RBA policy.
The Day Ahead
Australian GDP growth is scheduled for release at 21:30 ET with quarter-on-quarter growth expected at 0.3% and year-on-year at 1.8%. The Ai Group Industry Index for August will print at 19:00 ET. The RBNZ will announce its interest rate decision at 22:00 ET with markets pricing a 25bp hike to 2.75%, followed by a press conference at 23:00 ET.
RBA Assistant Governor Jones is due to speak on 2 September at 21:00 ET. The Australian trade balance for July is also due at 21:30 ET on 2 September, with a consensus of A$1.4bn. Mixed China PMI readings and firm domestic inflation data weighed on the Australian dollar overnight.
Housing market linkages remain central for both central banks given elevated household debt levels. Commodity export revenues continue to underpin Australian fiscal and external balances, while New Zealand’s dairy and tourism sectors face softer global demand.
Other Economic Notes
The RBA maintains the cash rate at 4.35% with Australian CPI at 3.45% YoY. The RBNZ cash rate stands at 2.50% against New Zealand CPI of 4.10% YoY. Markets expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bp to 2.75% today, marking a second consecutive hike and highlighting the RBNZ’s more aggressive stance relative to the RBA.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
