ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBNZ Hikes OCR, Aussie GDP Beats Forecasts
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,066.70 | -0.10% |
| NZX 50 | 13,930.57 | +1.04% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.00% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -1.16% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.13% |
| BHP | 64.65 | -3.28% |
| Gold | 4,435.90 | +2.02% |
| Brent Crude | 95.49 | +0.89% |
| Bitcoin | 77,287.52 | -0.15% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | 6.90 | -4.80 | -3.60 |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -26.20 | - | -3.50 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.10 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| Press Conference by RBNZ | - | - | - |
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.609–4.982 | Trend(5pt): 1.71,3.551,4.141,4.267,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by RBA's Jones | - | - | 17:00 |
| Trade Balance | 1,929m | 1,400m | 17:30 |
| RBA Brischetto Speech | - | - | 21:15 |
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | 21:15 |
- RBNZ raises OCR to 2.75%, NZD/USD drops 1.16%.
- Australia Q2 GDP prints 0.4% q/q, topping 0.3% consensus.
- ASX 200 edges down 0.10% while NZX 50 climbs 1.04%.
Yesterday's Recap
Australia’s Q2 GDP grew 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, beating the 0.3% consensus, while year-over-year expansion reached 2.1% against 1.8% expected. Building permits fell 3.6% month-over-month, less than the 4.8% decline forecast, and the Ai Group Industry Index rose to -3.5 from -26.2. In New Zealand the RBNZ lifted the OCR to 2.75% from 2.50% in line with consensus and held a subsequent press conference.
Equity markets diverged as the ASX 200 slipped 0.10% to 9,066.70 and the NZX 50 advanced 1.04% to 13,930.57. AUD/USD held at 0.72 while NZD/USD fell 1.16% to 0.59, pushing AUD/NZD 0.13% higher to 1.21. Gold rose 2.02% to 4,435.90 and the Australia 10-year yield eased 3.03% to 4.83%; NZ short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%.
The stronger GDP print highlights resilient external demand offsetting softer household consumption, while the RBNZ decision underscores persistent New Zealand inflation pressures at 4.10% year-over-year.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to three RBA speeches today from Jones, Brischetto and Hunter that may clarify the central bank’s reaction to stronger GDP. Australia’s August trade balance is also due, with the surplus expected to narrow to A$1.4 billion from A$1.929 billion. Markets will parse any comments on inflation persistence and commodity price support for the AUD.
No major New Zealand data releases are scheduled. Positioning ahead of the speeches is likely to keep AUD/NZD volatility elevated. The RBA speakers are expected to weigh the 0.4% GDP beat against ongoing weakness in domestic demand, while the narrower trade surplus could temper AUD upside if commodity support fades.
Cross-Tasman rate differentials remain in focus following the RBNZ move.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity-export model continues to benefit from elevated iron-ore and gold prices, widening the trade surplus and underpinning AUD resilience despite mixed domestic demand. New Zealand’s dairy-driven economy faces a narrower trade deficit but limited upside from stable GDT prices. Housing credit growth of 4.2% in New Zealand and softer Australian consumption both highlight divergent domestic cycles.
China’s stimulus signals remain the dominant external driver for both economies’ fiscal and currency outlooks. <i>↓ p.2</i>
