ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Australia GDP Beats, RBNZ Hikes to 2.75%
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,978.40 | -0.97% |
| NZX 50 | 13,846.18 | -0.61% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.80% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.19% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | +0.98% |
| BHP | 63.78 | -1.35% |
| Gold | 4,526.50 | +3.67% |
| Brent Crude | 95.67 | +0.04% |
| Bitcoin | 81,517.42 | +5.46% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Preliminary | 6.90 | -4.80 | -3.60 |
| Ai Group Industry Index | -26.20 | - | -3.50 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.10 |
| RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| Press Conference by RBNZ | - | - | - |
| Speech by RBA's Jones | - | - | - |
| Trade Balance | 2,341m | 1,400m | 1,923m |
| RBA Brischetto Speech | - | - | - |
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | - |
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.609–4.982 | Trend(5pt): 1.71,3.551,4.141,4.267,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Australian Q2 GDP rose 0.4% QoQ and 2.1% YoY, both above consensus, lifting RBA hike odds.
- RBNZ lifted OCR to 2.75% as expected but adopted a dovish tone, sending NZD lower.
- ASX 200 fell 0.97% while AUD/USD climbed 0.80% to 0.72 amid gold surge and trade surplus beat.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, beating the 0.3% consensus, and 2.1% year-on-year versus 1.8% expected, driven by stronger net exports despite subdued household consumption. Building permits fell 3.6% month-on-month, less than the 4.8% decline forecast, while the Ai Group Industry Index improved sharply to -3.5 from -26.2. The trade surplus reached A$1.923 billion, exceeding the A$1.4 billion consensus.
New Zealand’s RBNZ raised the OCR to 2.75% from 2.50% and held a press conference that markets viewed as cautious. The ASX 200 declined 0.97% to 8,978.40 and the NZX 50 fell 0.61% to 13,846.18. AUD/USD advanced 0.80% to 0.72 while NZD/USD eased 0.19% to 0.59, widening AUD/NZD by 0.98%.
Australia’s 10-year yield dropped 3.03% to 4.83% as gold rallied 3.67% to 4,526.50.
The Day Ahead
No major Australian or New Zealand data releases are scheduled for 3 September. Markets will digest yesterday’s GDP beat and RBNZ decision alongside three RBA speeches delivered on 2 September by Jones, Brischetto and Hunter. Attention will focus on any fresh signals about the RBA’s reaction function after the stronger-than-expected growth print.
Commodity price updates, particularly iron ore and dairy, will also influence sentiment given China’s role as the dominant export destination for both economies. Overnight moves in US yields and the USD will set the tone for AUD and NZD trading ranges.
Other Economic Notes
The GDP outperformance narrows the output gap and adds to evidence that Australian demand remains resilient enough to keep underlying inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Weak consumption, however, continues to cap the growth outlook and leaves the central bank with a narrow path between supporting activity and containing price pressures. New Zealand’s rate hike completes the RBNZ’s tightening phase at a lower terminal level than Australia’s, highlighting the divergence in policy cycles.
Housing markets in both countries remain sensitive to any further rate moves, with mortgage rates already elevated after prior tightening.
