ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Hike Bets Lift AUD Before Sentiment Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,005.90 | -0.16% |
| NZX 50 | 13,974.18 | +0.92% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.01% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.06% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | -0.01% |
| BHP | 62.25 | -2.40% |
| Gold | 4,476.60 | -0.34% |
| Brent Crude | 96.28 | +0.80% |
| Bitcoin | 79,822.55 | -0.00% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.609–4.982 | Trend(5pt): 1.71,3.551,4.141,4.267,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 6 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 88.90 | - | 20:30 |
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -6 | - | 21:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | 23:20 |
| Speech by RBA's Hauser | - | - | 05:30 |
| Business NZ PMI Index | 54.30 | - | 18:30 |
- AUD rises on growing RBA rate-hike expectations while NZD slips
- ASX 200 edges lower as BHP declines; NZX 50 advances on local buying
- No ANZ data releases yesterday; focus shifts to consumer and business surveys
Yesterday's Recap
Markets priced higher odds of RBA tightening after reports flagged renewed Australian inflationary pressures and further rate-hike forecasts. The ASX 200 fell 0.16% to 9,005.90 while BHP dropped 2.40% to 62.25, reflecting softer commodity sentiment. The NZX 50 gained 0.92% to 13,974.18.
AUD/USD climbed 0.01% to 0.72 on RBA expectations, whereas NZD/USD declined 0.06% to 0.59. Australia’s 10-year yield eased 3.03% to 4.83% and New Zealand’s short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33%. Brent crude rose 0.80% to 96.28 while gold slipped 0.34% to 4,476.60.
No economic releases occurred in either Australia or New Zealand on 5 September. News flow centered on AUD strength tied to RBA policy signals, with multiple outlets noting rising hike probabilities amid persistent price pressures.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to Australian consumer and business sentiment readings on 7 September. Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Index are due at 20:30 ET, followed by the NAB Business Confidence Index at 21:30 ET. Two RBA officials speak later that evening and early on 8 September, offering scope to clarify the inflation outlook.
New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI for August prints on 10 September. Markets will also monitor US non-farm payrolls for any spillover effects on global yields and commodity demand. The absence of yesterday’s data leaves these releases as the first fresh domestic signals since the prior month’s CPI prints.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s July CPI at 3.45% year-on-year continues to anchor RBA policy above the 2–3% target band. New Zealand’s June CPI of 4.10% year-on-year keeps the RBNZ on a tighter path despite slower growth momentum. Commodity linkages remain critical: iron ore, coal and LNG exports tie Australian activity closely to Chinese demand, while dairy and tourism dominate New Zealand’s external sector.
Housing markets in both countries stay sensitive to rate expectations, with mortgage-rate pass-through already weighing on household spending. The verified RBA cash rate stands at 4.35% and the RBNZ OCR at 2.50%, providing the baseline for any near-term adjustments signaled by upcoming speeches.
