ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AUD Hits 3M High on RBA Hike Bets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,005.90 | -0.16% |
| NZX 50 | 13,942.83 | -0.22% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.26% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.13% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.23 | +0.37% |
| BHP | 62.25 | -2.40% |
| Gold | 4,476.60 | +1.06% |
| Brent Crude | 96.28 | +0.00% |
| Bitcoin | 79,358.79 | -1.23% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Govt Bond Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.609–4.982 | Trend(5pt): 1.71,3.551,4.141,4.267,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 6 | - | 20:30 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 88.90 | - | 20:30 |
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -6 | - | 21:30 |
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | 23:20 |
| Speech by RBA's Hauser | - | - | 05:30 |
| Business NZ PMI Index | 54.30 | - | 18:30 |
- AUD rises to three-month high as markets price higher RBA hike odds
- ASX 200 and NZX 50 edge lower while gold advances 1.06%
- RBNZ seen delaying next hike until December amid cautious outlook
Yesterday's Recap
No economic data releases occurred in Australia or New Zealand on 6 September. The ASX 200 closed at 9,005.90, down 0.16%, while the NZX 50 finished at 13,942.83, down 0.22%. BHP fell 2.40% to 62.25, weighing on the broader index.
AUD/USD climbed 0.26% to 0.72, reaching a fresh three-month high as traders increased bets on further RBA tightening. NZD/USD slipped 0.13% to 0.59 and AUD/NZD gained 0.37% to 1.23. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped 3.03% to 4.83%, while New Zealand’s short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33%.
Gold rose 1.06% to 4,476.60, supporting the Australian dollar through its commodity-export channel. Brent Crude held steady at 96.28 with no immediate implications for energy exports.
The Day Ahead
Australian markets will focus on Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Index at 20:30, followed by the NAB Business Confidence Index at 21:30. Two RBA speeches, by Hunter at 23:20 and Hauser at 05:30, will provide further policy signals. New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI is scheduled for release on 10 September at 18:30.
No bond auctions or major Chinese data prints are listed for the immediate horizon. Traders will also monitor US non-farm payrolls for any spillover effects on global rate expectations.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s July CPI at 3.45% has reinforced market views that the RBA cash rate at 4.35% may need further adjustment. Renewed inflationary pressures are cited in multiple reports as the driver behind rising hike probabilities. In New Zealand, cautious consumers remain the primary risk to recovery according to RBNZ commentary, with the OCR standing at 2.50%.
Housing-market linkages continue to influence both central banks, though Australia’s larger commodity-export base gives it greater sensitivity to China demand signals. BHP’s 2.40% decline underscores ongoing mining-sector caution despite gold’s advance.
Global Macro News
The US dollar drew support from renewed Fed rate-hike bets and Iran-related tensions, pressuring the NZD more than the AUD. Australian dollar strength versus the yen reflected both RBA tightening expectations and BoJ normalisation hopes. <i>↓ p.2</i>
