ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Hawkish Bets Propel AUD Despite Weak Data
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,010.90 | +0.06% |
| NZX 50 | 13,792.90 | -1.08% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.18% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | -0.46% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.23 | +0.63% |
| BHP | 62.55 | -0.60% |
| Gold | 4,407.90 | -0.49% |
| Brent Crude | 98.62 | +2.43% |
| Bitcoin | 78,454.35 | -0.84% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 6 | - | -5.20 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 88.90 | - | 84.40 |
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -6 | - | -8 |
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | - |
| Speech by RBA's Hauser | - | - | - |
Australia Labor Market Trend | Type: macro_line | Unemployment %: 4.428 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.437–5.238 | Trend(5pt): 5.238,3.526,3.739,4.054,4.428
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBNZ Silk Speech | - | - | 15:40 |
| Business NZ PMI Index | 54.30 | - | 14:30 |
- Australian consumer and business confidence fell sharply on Sep 7, with Westpac Index at 84.4 and NAB at -8.
- AUD/USD reached a three-month high at 0.72 on intensified RBA rate-hike pricing despite softer data.
- RBNZ remains cautious with OCR at 2.50%, NZD/USD easing to 0.59 amid global USD support.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian data releases on Sep 7 showed clear deterioration in sentiment. Westpac Consumer Confidence Change printed -5.2 while the Index dropped to 84.4 from 88.9. NAB Business Confidence Index slipped to -8 from -6.
These prints occurred alongside RBA Deputy Governor remarks acknowledging public anger over inflation yet signalling further tightening may be required. Markets reflected the hawkish tilt: ASX 200 edged up 0.06% to 9,010.90 while NZX 50 fell 1.08% to 13,792.90. AUD/USD rose 0.18% to 0.72 and AUD/NZD gained 0.63% to 1.23.
Australia 10-year yields fell 3.03% to 4.83% as Brent crude climbed 2.43% to 98.62. BHP declined 0.60% to 62.55, gold slipped 0.49% to 4,407.90, and Bitcoin fell 0.84% to 78,454.35. New Zealand short-term rates dropped 9.60% to 4.33%.
The Day Ahead
Attention today turns to the RBNZ Silk Speech at 15:40 ET, which may clarify the bank’s cautious stance on the OCR at 2.50%. Tomorrow offers no major ANZ releases. On Sep 10, Business NZ PMI is due at 14:30 ET and will provide the first services-sector read since August.
No RBA speeches or policy announcements are scheduled. Markets will continue to monitor AUD strength driven by RBA inflation focus and any spillover from US CPI later in the week. Commodity flows remain key for Australia given its iron-ore and LNG exposure to China.
Other Economic Notes
Signs of economic slowdown in Australia have not altered RBA pricing, with markets still embedding rate-hike bets. Consumer frustration with 3.45% CPI YoY persists even as confidence metrics weaken. New Zealand faces a more subdued outlook, with its 4.10% CPI YoY and lower OCR leaving less room for aggressive tightening.
Housing-market linkages remain critical in both countries, where rate expectations directly influence mortgage costs and dwelling approvals. China demand continues to dominate Australian export revenues while dairy and tourism anchor New Zealand’s external balance. RBNZ has opened its settlement system to the first non-bank member, a step that could gradually alter liquidity dynamics without immediate policy impact.
