ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Hawkish Signals Lift AUD Amid Oil Spike
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,741.20 | -0.89% |
| NZX 50 | 13,580.33 | -0.95% |
| AUD/USD | 0.72 | +0.14% |
| NZD/USD | 0.58 | +0.18% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.23 | -0.22% |
| BHP | 60.87 | -4.05% |
| Gold | 4,408.90 | +1.02% |
| Brent Crude | 104.61 | -2.81% |
| Bitcoin | 77,271.60 | +0.00% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Australia 10Y Govt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.831 (2026-06-01) | Range: 1.609–4.982 | Trend(5pt): 1.71,3.551,4.141,4.267,4.831
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by RBA's Hunter | - | - | 22:30 |
| Current Account Balance | -1,010m | -2,700m | 18:45 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.80 | 0.10 | 18:45 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 1.50 | 2.30 | 18:45 |
| Trade Balance | -1,950m | -1,275m | 18:45 |
- RBA signals keep rate-hike odds alive as Australian CPI holds at 3.45% and growth slows to 0.4%.
- ASX 200 falls 0.89% while AUD/USD rises to 0.72 on firm commodity prices and oil above USD 100.
- RBNZ OCR stays at 2.75% with NZD/USD gaining to 0.58 ahead of Q2 GDP and current-account data.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets in both countries closed lower on 12 September with no fresh economic releases in Australia or New Zealand. The ASX 200 dropped 0.89% to 8,741.20 as BHP fell 4.05% to 60.87 on profit-taking and softer global risk sentiment. The NZX 50 declined 0.95% to 13,580.33.
AUD/USD advanced 0.14% to 0.72 while NZD/USD gained 0.18% to 0.58, supported by hawkish RBA commentary and elevated oil prices. Australia’s 10-year government yield eased 3.03% to 4.83% and New Zealand’s short-term rate fell 9.60% to 4.33%. Brent crude slipped 2.81% to 104.61 yet remained above USD 100, adding fresh inflation pressure for Australia.
Gold rose 1.02% to 4,408.90, providing some support to Australian mining revenues. China’s largest bank urging yuan settlement for iron ore, coal and bauxite exports signals a potential long-term shift in AUD trade invoicing.
The Day Ahead
A high-impact speech by RBA’s Hunter at 22:30 ET today will keep markets focused on Australian policy signals. New Zealand releases its Current Account Balance on 15 September with consensus at –2.7 billion NZD. On 16 September, New Zealand will publish Q2 GDP figures showing expected QoQ growth of 0.1% and YoY growth of 2.3%, alongside the Trade Balance on 17 September.
No RBA or RBNZ policy meetings are scheduled in the immediate window. Markets will also monitor any further commentary on Australian inflation risks stemming from Brent crude above USD 100 and the 3.45% CPI print.
Other Economic Notes
Australian GDP growth of just 0.4% highlights the drag from higher-for-longer rates on household spending and housing activity. CPI remains sticky at 3.45% YoY, keeping the RBA alert despite the cash rate at 4.35%. New Zealand’s CPI at 4.10% YoY continues to exceed the RBNZ’s target midpoint, though the OCR sits at 2.75%.
China’s push for yuan settlement of iron-ore, coal and bauxite exports could gradually alter AUD liquidity and trade invoicing for Australia’s largest commodity shipments. Both economies remain sensitive to any softening in Chinese demand given their heavy reliance on resource and dairy exports.
