ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBA Hikes to 4.6% as CPI Prints 4.0%
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,682.10 | +0.79% |
| NZX 50 | 13,680.49 | -0.94% |
| AUD/USD | 0.70 | +0.42% |
| NZD/USD | 0.56 | +0.38% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.24 | -0.08% |
| BHP | 61.21 | +1.58% |
| Gold | 4,162.30 | -0.95% |
| Brent Crude | 102.25 | -0.06% |
| Bitcoin | 85,403.00 | +0.75% |
| Australia 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.35 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| RBA Press Conference | - | - | - |
| ANZ Business Confidence | 53.70 | - | 51.90 |
| Building Permits Month-over-Month Prel | -1.90 | -2 | -6.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 1 | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.50 | 4.10 | 4 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Year-over-Year | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Trade Balance | 1,351m | 2,000m | 495m |
Aus-NZ 10Y Yield Spread | Type: macro_line | Aus 10Y %: 5.015 (2026-08-01) | Range: 1.609–5.015 | Trend(6pt): 1.806,3.604,4.045,4.35,4.919,5.015 | NZ 10Y %: 4.71 (2026-08-01) | Range: 2.37–5.47 | Trend(6pt): 2.57,4.13,4.64,4.59,4.61,4.71
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- RBA raised the cash rate 25 bp to 4.60% while Australian headline CPI reached 4.0% YoY.
- Trade surplus narrowed sharply to A$495 million and building permits plunged 6.1% MoM.
- ASX 200 gained 0.79% while NZX 50 fell 0.94%; AUD/USD rose 0.42% to 0.70.
Yesterday's Recap
The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60% from 4.35%, matching consensus, and followed with a press conference that underscored persistent inflation risks. Australian headline CPI printed 4.0% YoY and 0.4% MoM, both slightly below forecasts, while the trimmed-mean measure held at 3.6% YoY. Building permits collapsed 6.1% MoM against an expected 2.0% decline.
The trade surplus shrank to A$495 million, missing the A$2 billion consensus by a wide margin. New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence slipped to 51.9 from 53.7. Equity markets diverged as the ASX 200 advanced 0.79% to 8,682.10 while the NZX 50 dropped 0.94% to 13,680.49.
AUD/USD climbed 0.42% to 0.70 and NZD/USD added 0.38% to 0.56, with BHP rising 1.58% to 61.21 amid firmer commodity sentiment. The moves occurred against a backdrop of softer monthly inflation momentum yet still-elevated annual readings that kept the RBA on a tightening path.
The Day Ahead
No Australian or New Zealand data releases, central-bank meetings or bond auctions are scheduled for 4–5 October. Markets will therefore focus on external drivers, particularly any fresh signals from China on steel demand and iron-ore pricing that could influence BHP and AUD. Global risk sentiment and US inflation rhetoric will also shape AUD and NZD flows in the absence of local catalysts.
Housing-market commentary is expected to intensify after the latest rate hike and still-elevated 4.0% inflation print. Participants will monitor any follow-up statements from Treasurer Chalmers on cost-of-living pressures linked to external events. With the calendar clear, attention turns to commodity price updates and cross-market flows that have historically moved ANZ currencies even on quiet domestic days.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s 4.0% inflation outcome, driven by housing, fuel and underlying services, continues to pressure household budgets and widen the affordability gap in major cities. The sharp drop in building permits signals further downside risks to construction activity and dwelling investment over coming quarters. New Zealand business sentiment remains subdued, consistent with softer domestic demand and the lagged effects of earlier RBNZ tightening.
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