ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
AU Jobs Slump Eases RBA Hike Odds; RBNZ Open
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,719.70 | -0.09% |
| NZX 50 | 13,832.80 | +0.53% |
| AUD/USD | 0.69 | -0.91% |
| NZD/USD | 0.56 | +0.04% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.23 | -0.95% |
| BHP | 58.00 | -4.70% |
| Gold | 4,193.70 | +2.09% |
| Brent Crude | 105.75 | -0.29% |
| Bitcoin | 82,256.61 | +0.85% |
| Australia 2Y Govt Yield | 4.94% | +1 bp |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 5.40% | +1 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAB Business Confidence Index | -8 | - | -13 |
| RBA Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| Employment Change | 29,300 | 20,000 | -39,300 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | -4,000 | - | 34,400 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.70 | 4.60 | 4.70 |
Australia vs NZ Policy Rate Spread | Type: macro_line | AU Short Rate (%): 4.35 (2026-08-01) | Range: 0.1–4.35 | Trend(5pt): 0.1,3.1,4.35,4.01,4.35
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business NZ PMI | 53.10 | - | 17:30 |
| Trade Balance | -1,349m | - | 17:45 |
- Australia shed 39,300 jobs in September, pushing unemployment to 4.7% and softening expectations of a further RBA hike, though full-time employment rose 34,400.
- NAB business confidence deteriorated to -13 from -8, while RBA minutes kept November hike bets alive; AUD slipped 0.91% to 0.69.
- RBNZ Chief Economist Conway called the late-October decision "completely open," leaning toward a hike; NZD firmed and NZX 50 gained 0.53%.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian labour market data dominated the session. Employment change printed at -39,300, well below the 20,000 consensus and a sharp reversal from the prior 29,300 gain, though the composition was more encouraging with full-time employment up 34,400 after a 4,000 decline. The headline unemployment rate held at 4.7%, matching the prior reading but missing the 4.6% consensus, marking a five-year high and easing pressure on the RBA to deliver another hike.
Earlier in the week, the NAB business confidence index deteriorated to -13 from -8, signalling softening sentiment across the corporate sector. The RBA meeting minutes from the October decision gave mixed messages, with markets continuing to price a November hike even as the labour data softened. The AUD weakened 0.91% to 0.69 against the USD, and cross-rate AUD/NZD fell 0.95% to 1.23 as the NZD held firmer.
Equities diverged: the ASX 200 slipped 0.09% to 8,719.70, weighed by a 4.70% drop in BHP, while the NZX 50 rallied 0.53% to 13,832.80. Australian government yields were little changed, with the 2-year at 4.94% and the 10-year at 5.40%, both up 1 bp.
The Day Ahead
The New Zealand calendar takes centre stage today. Business NZ PMI is due at 17:30 ET, with the prior reading at 53.1; a softer print would reinforce concerns about manufacturing momentum and add to the case for policy patience from the RBNZ. Later in the week, New Zealand's trade balance is scheduled for Sunday's session, with the prior deficit at NZD 1.349 billion.
Australia's calendar is quiet into Friday, leaving markets to digest the labour market implications and position ahead of the RBNZ's late-October decision. Attention will also remain on commodity markets, where Brent crude held near 105.75 and gold rallied 2.09% to 4,193.70, supportive of Australia's resource terms of trade.
Other Economic Notes
Australia's labour market is showing clear signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate at a five-year high of 4.7% even as full-time hiring rebounded. The divergence between headline job losses and full-time gains suggests hours-based adjustments rather than wholesale retrenchment, consistent with employers cutting hours before heads. ↓ p.2
