RBA Hawkish, NZ CPI Eyed; AUD at One-Month High

RoboMacro ResearchAlso todaySee the FX Daily

RBA Hawkish, NZ CPI Eyed; AUD at One-Month High

ASX 2008,831.30+0.16%

NZX 5013,761.29+0.95%

AUD/USD0.70+0.74%

NZD/USD0.57+0.68%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
ASX 200	8,831.30	+0.16%
NZX 50	13,761.29	+0.95%
AUD/USD	0.70	+0.74%
NZD/USD	0.57	+0.68%
AUD/NZD	1.23	+0.04%
BHP	58.54	-1.61%
Gold	4,149.50	+0.17%
Brent Crude	109.56	+0.71%
Bitcoin	84,438.10	+1.81%
Australia 2Y Govt Yield	4.92%	+3 bp
Australia 10Y Govt Yield	5.31%	+2 bp

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Inflation Rate Quarter-over-Quarter	1.50	0.80	17:45

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser says Australia's inflation outlook is "materially worse" than expected, keeping the RBA hawkish ahead of its policy meeting and lifting AUD/USD to a one-month high of 0.70.
New Zealand Q3 CPI quarter-over-quarter is due today (consensus 0.8% vs prior 1.5%), the last major inflation print before the RBNZ decision; swaps markets price a steeper RBNZ path than the central bank itself.
Australian 2Y and 10Y yields rose 3 bp and 2 bp to 4.92% and 5.31% respectively, while NZX 50 outperformed (+0.95%) and BHP lagged (-1.61%) despite firm Brent crude at $109.56.

Yesterday's Recap

Australian markets traded a hawkish RBA signal on Tuesday, with the ASX 200 edging up 0.16% to 8,831.30 even as RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned that Australia's inflation outlook is "materially worse" than expected ahead of the policy meeting. The Australian curve bear-flattened modestly, with the 2-year yield up 3 bp to 4.92% and the 10-year up 2 bp to 5.31%, reflecting the market's read that the RBA is not yet ready to ease. AUD/USD extended its rally to a one-month high around 0.70, up 0.74% on the day, while AUD/NZD was essentially flat at 1.23 (+0.04%).

Across the Tasman, NZX 50 rose 0.95% to 13,761.29 and NZD/USD gained 0.68% to 0.57 as traders positioned for a steeper RBNZ hiking path than the central bank's own guidance. BHP fell 1.61% to A$58.54, underperforming the broader index despite Brent crude firming 0.71% to $109.56 and gold up 0.17% at $4,149.50. No scheduled Australian or New Zealand data releases printed yesterday, leaving the RBA commentary and RBNZ pricing as the dominant domestic drivers.

The Day Ahead

The focus today is New Zealand's Q3 inflation report at 17:45 ET, with quarter-over-quarter CPI consensus at 0.8% following the prior 1.5% print — the final major inflation data point before the RBNZ's upcoming decision. A print at or above consensus would reinforce market pricing for further RBNZ tightening and support NZD, while a soft outcome would revive the case for a hold and likely weigh on the kiwi, as ASB has flagged. No top-tier Australian data is scheduled, so AUD direction will be driven by offshore risk sentiment, commodity prices and positioning around the RBA's hawkish rhetoric.

Australian 2-year and 10-year yields at 4.92% and 5.31% remain the key domestic markers to watch for any further repricing of the RBA path. With Brent crude above $109, energy-driven inflation risk remains a live theme for both economies.

Other Economic Notes

Australia's inflation backdrop remains the central domestic vulnerability, with CPI running at 4.00% year-over-year as of August, well above target and consistent with the RBA's hawkish tone. ↓ p.2

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

The RBA has also highlighted AI data-centre investment and technology price pressures as emerging inflation sources, alongside productivity assumptions that constrain the economy's capacity to absorb demand without generating price pressure. New Zealand's CPI stood at 4.10% year-over-year as of June, and today's quarterly print will shape the near-term inflation trajectory into the RBNZ meeting. Housing markets remain a critical transmission channel in both countries, with higher rates weighing on construction activity in New Zealand and mortgage servicing pressures in Australia.

Commodity exports — iron ore, coal, LNG and gold for Australia, dairy for New Zealand — remain the key external income drivers, with China's growth outlook the single most important swing factor for both.

Global Macro News

Global markets are in a central bank "super week," with the Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoC and RBNZ all in focus, keeping cross-asset volatility elevated. The US dollar slipped as investors reassessed the Fed rate outlook, a move that has helped AUD and NZD extend gains. Oil above $109 per barrel is feeding inflation concerns globally and reinforcing rate-hike bets in energy-linked economies such as Canada, where Commerzbank notes energy support is lifting rate-hike odds.

Global bond yields remain elevated, a theme RBA Deputy Governor Hauser addressed directly, and Australian banking liquidity transition is adding to the domestic rates backdrop. Gold at $4,149.50 and Bitcoin at $84,438.10 (+1.81%) signal persistent demand for alternative stores of value amid inflation and fiscal uncertainty. For ANZ economies, the key transmission channels are China's growth outlook, commodity prices and the US rates path, all of which remain fluid.

Continuation

ANZ Central Banks Watch

The RBA holds its cash rate at 4.60%, and Deputy Governor Hauser's warning that Australia's inflation outlook is "materially worse" than expected signals the committee remains firmly hawkish ahead of its policy meeting. Market pricing has responded, with the 2-year yield at 4.92% and AUD at a one-month high, suggesting investors see little near-term easing. The RBNZ's OCR sits at 2.75%, and swaps traders are pricing a steeper path than the central bank itself, reflecting expectations of further tightening if today's CPI print comes in hot.

ASB cautions that an RBNZ hold next week would likely sink the New Zealand dollar, underscoring how sensitive NZD is to the gap between market pricing and RBNZ guidance. The divergence is notable: Australia's RBA is defending against sticky inflation at a 4.60% cash rate, while New Zealand's RBNZ at 2.75% faces market pressure to tighten further. Housing market linkages remain central to both banks' calculus, with rate-sensitive construction and mortgage dynamics shaping the growth-inflation trade-off in each economy.

ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)