ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
SG GDP Steady, Rupiah Weakens on Risk Aversion
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,037.84 | +1.92% |
| SET | 1,621.55 | +0.82% |
| KLCI | 1,698.44 | +0.41% |
| PSEi | 6,286.70 | +1.01% |
| STI | 5,470.34 | +0.02% |
| USD/IDR | 18,111.00 | +0.25% |
| USD/THB | 33.45 | -0.18% |
| USD/MYR | 4.07 | -0.06% |
| USD/PHP | 61.64 | +0.21% |
| USD/SGD | 1.29 | -0.24% |
| Brent Crude | 85.44 | +2.57% |
| Gold | 4,055.60 | +1.47% |
| Bitcoin | 64,826.87 | +4.16% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate | 1.30 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
USD/IDR Exchange Rate | Type: market_hloc | IDR per USD: 1.811e+04 (2026-07-14) | Range: 1.712e+04–1.819e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.713e+04,1.73e+04,1.784e+04,1.779e+04,1.811e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.10 | - | 20:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2 | 2 | 20:00 |
- Singapore Q2 GDP growth printed at 1.1% QoQ, matching consensus but below prior 1.3%.
- Regional equities rose, led by JCI (+1.92%) and PSEi (+1.01%), while USD/IDR climbed 0.25%.
- S&P affirmed Indonesia’s investment-grade rating; BoT flagged stablecoin activity and monitored baht weakness.
Yesterday's Recap
Singapore’s Q2 GDP advance estimate matched the 1.1% consensus, easing from 1.3% prior and signaling moderate expansion in the city-state’s trade-exposed economy. Jakarta’s JCI surged 1.92% to 6,037.84 while Manila’s PSEi gained 1.01%, supported by commodity and export names. Bangkok’s SET rose 0.82% and Kuala Lumpur’s KLCI added 0.41%, but Singapore’s STI edged only 0.02% higher.
The rupiah weakened as USD/IDR rose 0.25% to 18,111 amid broader risk aversion, while the baht strengthened modestly with USD/THB falling 0.18%. Indonesia’s 10-year yield data remained unavailable; S&P’s affirmation of the sovereign rating provided limited relief to local assets. Thailand’s central bank highlighted abnormal USDT flows as part of its grey-economy review.
The Day Ahead
Malaysia will release June inflation data on 16 July, with the year-over-year rate expected to hold at 2.0% and month-over-month prints left unrevised from 0.1%. Traders will watch whether the steady print alters expectations for BNM’s policy stance. No major releases are scheduled for Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines or Vietnam on 14-15 July.
Regional FX desks will monitor USD/MYR and USD/THB moves ahead of the Malaysian print. Equity markets are likely to take cues from any fresh China trade data or US equity futures.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia’s economy is projected by S&P to expand 5.1% in 2026, below the government target, underscoring fiscal and external financing constraints. Thailand’s BoT revised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.3% while flagging investment shortfalls, household debt and inequality as structural drags. Vietnam continues to capture electronics FDI as firms diversify from China, with June exports rising sharply.
Singapore’s NODX electronics component shipments posted modest gains, consistent with its role as a regional supply-chain hub. Malaysia’s semiconductor shipments also expanded, reinforcing the manufacturing recovery across ASEAN’s mid-tier economies.
Global Macro News
Brent crude rose 2.57% to $85.44 per barrel on persistent Middle East supply concerns, lifting energy-linked currencies and assets across ASEAN. Gold advanced 1.47% to $4,055.60, providing a safe-haven bid that supported Indonesia’s external buffers. <i>↓ p.2</i>
