Indonesia GDP Beats as Rupiah Hits Record Low

RoboMacro Research

Indonesia GDP Beats as Rupiah Hits Record Low

JCI6,409.65+1.04%

KLCI1,735.75-0.08%

STI5,698.43+1.05%

USD/IDR17,790.00-0.68%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	6,409.65	+1.04%
KLCI	1,735.75	-0.08%
STI	5,698.43	+1.05%
USD/IDR	17,790.00	-0.68%
USD/THB	32.98	-0.36%
USD/MYR	4.09	-0.02%
USD/PHP	60.72	-0.10%
USD/SGD	1.28	-0.26%
Brent Crude	87.85	+5.15%
Gold	4,448.60	+2.49%
Bitcoin	63,922.13	-1.42%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter	0.70	-	22:30
GDP Growth Year-over-Year	2.80	-	22:30
Inflation Rate Month-over-Month	0	-	00:00
Inflation Rate Year-over-Year	1.90	-	00:00

Indonesia Q2 GDP expanded 5.29% y/y, beating forecasts on household spending and investment.
Rupiah fell to historic lows near 17,790 per USD amid BI governor resignation and capital outflows.
Regional equities mixed with JCI and STI gaining over 1% while KLCI edged lower; Brent crude surged 5.15%.

Yesterday's Recap

Indonesia’s economy grew 5.29% y/y in Q2, exceeding expectations as government spending rose 15.97% and household consumption provided support. The rupiah weakened to a record 17,790 against the USD, amplifying import costs and debt servicing pressures across the commodity-driven economy. JCI rose 1.04% to 6,409.65 on the growth beat, while foreign selling remained contained.

Thailand’s SET index was little changed amid ongoing probes into stablecoin flows by the Bank of Thailand. Malaysia’s KLCI slipped 0.08% to 1,735.75 despite the central bank’s 4-5% full-year growth outlook. Singapore’s STI advanced 1.05% to 5,698.43 as reserve managers delivered positive returns amid volatility.

Brent crude jumped 5.15% to 87.85, lifting regional energy exporters. Gold rose 2.49% to 4,448.60 while Bitcoin fell 1.42% to 63,922.13. USD/IDR eased 0.68% and USD/THB declined 0.36%.

Indonesia’s inaugural Panda Bond issuance marks a strategic diversification of sovereign funding away from traditional USD markets. Supply-chain shifts continue to favour Vietnam and Malaysia, where electronics exports grew strongly in recent months. Thailand’s tourism recovery has slowed, trimming second-quarter growth and prompting fiscal measures aimed at high-value visitors.

The Day Ahead

Thailand will release Q2 GDP growth figures on 16 August, with consensus expecting a modest sequential pickup from the prior 0.7% quarter-on-quarter print. Malaysia’s July inflation data due the following day will show whether the 1.9% y/y rate has stabilised after the recent energy shock. No major releases are scheduled for Indonesia, the Philippines or Singapore in the immediate session.

Markets will monitor BI’s response to the rupiah’s slide and any signals on reserve management. Vietnam trade data later in the week may highlight continued electronics export momentum. Regional bond markets stayed range-bound as investors awaited clearer signals from BI after the governor’s departure.

Commodity price strength, especially in Brent, offers a near-term buffer for Indonesia and Malaysia current accounts.

Page 1

Other Economic Notes

Indonesia’s inaugural Panda Bond issuance marks a strategic diversification of sovereign funding away from traditional USD markets. Supply-chain shifts continue to favour Vietnam and Malaysia, where electronics exports grew strongly in recent months. Thailand’s tourism recovery has slowed, trimming second-quarter growth and prompting fiscal measures aimed at high-value visitors.

Regional bond markets stayed range-bound as investors awaited clearer signals from BI after the governor’s departure. Commodity price strength, especially in Brent, offers a near-term buffer for Indonesia and Malaysia current accounts. Wildfires across Indonesia linked to El Niño add downside risks to agricultural output and export earnings.

US plans to close five consulates, including one in Indonesia, raising concerns over reduced diplomatic presence amid China’s regional influence.

Global Macro News

US plans to close five consulates, including one in Indonesia, raising concerns over reduced diplomatic presence amid China’s regional influence. Persistent global energy cost pressures have kept inflation risks elevated, influencing policy settings from RBI to MAS. India’s retail inflation at 4.38% and RBI repo rate at 5.25% underscore a cautious stance that echoes ASEAN central banks’ focus on price stability.

Strong investment returns at Singapore’s reserve managers highlight resilience in official portfolios despite volatility. Emerging-market stress, visible in the rupiah’s decline, reflects broader capital-flow sensitivity to US policy signals and dollar strength. Wildfires across Indonesia linked to El Niño add downside risks to agricultural output and export earnings.

Thailand’s crackdown on stablecoin trades may reshape its financial landscape, impacting liquidity and foreign participation in digital markets.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia faces immediate credibility questions after Governor Perry Warjiyo’s resignation, with markets watching for any shift in rupiah defence tactics or reserve drawdowns. The committee is expected to maintain its current stance while monitoring capital outflows, though no vote split has been disclosed. Bank of Thailand continues tightening oversight of USDT flows and grey-economy transactions without altering its policy rate path.

BNM reiterated its 4-5% growth forecast and signalled readiness to hold rates steady given contained inflation. BSP is likely to stay on hold after July CPI came in below expectations, reducing near-term cut pressure. MAS tightened its exchange-rate band in response to imported inflation risks, marking a divergence from interest-rate focused peers.

<i>↓ p.2</i>

Continuation

ASEAN Central Banks Watch (continued)

SBV has kept policy accommodative to support manufacturing FDI inflows while maintaining reserve adequacy.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)